CMS projects national health spending grew to $5.7 trillion in 2025

National health spending is projected to have reached $5.7 trillion in 2025, up 7.3% from 2024, according to an analysis by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services published yesterday by Health Affairs. It marks the third consecutive year of growth greater than 7%. CMS projects growth to continue in 2026 due to continued demand for high-cost retail prescription drugs, mostly from individuals with Medicare and private insurance. However, the growth rate will slow "as a result of Marketplace enrollment declines and legislation affecting Medicaid payments and enrollment." The authors noted that "compared with the faster growth in utilization, health price growth … has been fairly moderate and is expected to average roughly 2.5 percent through 2026." By 2034, health spending is expected to grow to nearly $9 trillion and the insured share of the population is expected to decline to 90.5%, down from 91.7% in 2025.