The One Number Autodesk Stock Investors Should Watch

For questions about this article or underlying research, email [email protected].

Autodesk (ADSK) is paying a smaller share of its revenue in stock-based compensation. You might expect a software company to keep growing this cost, and the reduction may be what buyers are betting on. Yet the shares lost 12.5% over the past twelve months, while the S&P 500 returned 13.1%. A shrinking cost and a falling stock do not fit together. So how far is Autodesk cutting its stock-based compensation?

Autodesk Expects Stock-Based Compensation Near 9% Of Revenue

Can Autodesk Keep Its Margin Gains After Buying MaintainX?

Autodesk has not shown that yet, because every quarter it has reported so far ended before MaintainX joined. Fiscal Q2 2027 ended on July 31, 2026, and Autodesk completed the purchase of MaintainX, which management calls its cornerstone acquisition in operations, on August 3.

Investors already had doubts about profit. When Autodesk reported on August 27, 2026, its revenue forecasts beat Wall Street's estimates, but its profit forecasts for the third quarter and the full year fell short of expectations. The stock dropped.

Management revised its forecast for fiscal 2027 reported operating margin to 25% to 27%, primarily to reflect the accounting effects of the MaintainX acquisition. In May, before MaintainX joined, the range had been 26% to 28%. That forecast includes about six months of MaintainX's operating costs. So Autodesk has shown what lower stock-based compensation does for its margin without MaintainX, but not yet with it.

What A Buyer Of Autodesk Stock Is Paying For

A buyer is paying for profit per share, making the share count matter too. Autodesk spent $1.59 billion on buybacks in the four quarters to July 2026, which was $0.885 billion more than its stock-based compensation. The diluted share count fell to 211 million in fiscal Q2 2027, from 215 million a year earlier. Management plans to keep putting about 50% of free cash flow toward reducing the share count over time.

The shares are not cheap on earnings. Autodesk trades at 33.3 times its trailing earnings, against 22.3 for the S&P 500. A buyer at that price is paying for reported profit to keep rising. If stock-based compensation climbs back as a share of revenue, or the reported margin slips once MaintainX's costs arrive, that buyer has paid a premium for profit growth that has slowed. Management's forecast already points to a slip: 25% to 27% for the full year, below fiscal Q2's 29.2%.

The cut in stock-based compensation holds so far, in dollars and as a share of revenue. Autodesk has yet to show that its margin gains will last alongside MaintainX. Autodesk's reported operating margin for fiscal Q3 2027, its first quarter with MaintainX, is the measure to watch when the company reports in November 2026.

Beyond ADSK: A Systematic Way To Invest

Before you decide on ADSK, consider a better choice. Since its September 2020 launch, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P MidCap and Russell 2000, without betting on one stock.

See The HQ Portfolio

Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.