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09/15/2026 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 09/15/2026 12:11

Fewer Than Half of Americans Expect Free and Fair Midterms

Published Date

September 15, 2026

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Americans are heading into the 2026 midterm elections with widespread uncertainty about the integrity of the vote, according to a new national survey from the University of California San Diego.

When asked whether they expect the November 2026 elections to be free and fair, just 49% of voters said yes. Nearly one-quarter, 23%, said no, while another 28% said they did not know.

The findings come from a survey of 5,016 American adults conducted Sept. 1-9, led by UC San Diego's Center for Transparent and Trusted Elections. The results show some areas of broad agreement across party lines on what is driving voter concerns, alongside sharp divisions over others.

Researchers with the Center have been tracking Americans' trust in elections in recent years, and the latest survey shows trust in the accuracy of the national vote count has fallen sharply since the 2024 presidential election.

Immediately after the election, 77% of Americans said they were confident votes nationwide had been counted as intended. That fell to 60% by January 2026 and has now dropped to 55%. The decline has occurred across party lines but has been particularly pronounced among independents in recent months. Their confidence fell 8 percentage points, from 57% in January to 49% in September. Over the same period, confidence among Democrats fell from 64% to 63% and among Republicans from 65% to 58%. The January survey documented the earlier decline across all three partisan groups.

These views also appear to be firmly held: 89% of respondents said they were at least moderately certain about their level of confidence.

"What stands out is that trust isn't declining within just one party - we're seeing confidence fall among Democrats, Republicans and independents," said Thad Kousser, Center co-director and professor in the Department of Political Science at UC San Diego's School of Social Sciences. "Democrats, Republicans and independents all express doubts, although what drives those doubts can be very different."

AI Deepfakes Lead a Range of Election Concerns

One issue that crosses party lines is the potential influence of artificial intelligence.

More than three-quarters of Americans - 76% - said they are concerned that misleading audio or video deepfakes created using AI will affect the 2026 midterm elections.

When asked whether AI will be mostly beneficial or mostly harmful in the midterms, respondents across every partisan group were more likely to view it as harmful. Republicans chose "mostly harmful" over "mostly beneficial" by a 2.6-to-1 ratio, Democrats by 3.4-to-1 and independents by 4.1-to-1.

A supermajority of Americans are also opposed to election officials betting on elections through prediction markets: 71% of Americans favor banning election officials from making these bets. There was widespread support for a ban even among those who bet on elections through Polymarket and Kalshi themselves.

Americans also expressed concerns about other potential threats to election integrity. Forty-four percent cited the way congressional district lines are drawn as a source of distrust. Another 41% expressed concerns about whether U.S. elections are protected against foreign interference and 39% raised concerns about whether voting technology is protected against cyber attacks.

"Americans are navigating an information environment in which it can be increasingly difficult to determine what is authentic and whom to trust," said Lauren Prather, associate professor at UC San Diego's School of Global Policy and Strategy and co-director of CTTE. "Our findings show broad concern about AI-generated misinformation and foreign interference, even among voters who may disagree strongly about other aspects of how elections are conducted."

Sharp Partisan Divisions Over Mail Voting

Other election issues reveal much deeper partisan divisions.

Among Democrats, 19% expressed distrust that ballots cast by mail are counted accurately, compared with 35% of independents and 53% of Republicans.

The divide was even greater when respondents were asked about potential federal action to limit mail-ballot voting in their states.

Composite image of Kousser at left and Prather at right.

Potential Presence of Federal Immigration Officers at Polling Places Divides Voters

The survey also asked Americans about the potential presence of federal immigration officers at voting locations. At least one-third of respondents in each partisan group said they believe it is likely that federal immigration officers will be present at voting locations in their area.

But the effect of their potential presence on confidence in elections varies sharply by political affiliation.

Among Democrats, 60% said the presence of federal immigration officers would make them less confident that votes in their county or city would be counted as voters intended, while 7% said it would increase their confidence. Among independents, 37% said their confidence would decrease and 19% said it would increase. In January, those figures were 32% and 19%, respectively.

Republicans responded in the opposite direction. In the latest survey, 46% said the presence of federal immigration officers would increase their confidence that votes would be counted as intended, while 9% said it would decrease their confidence.

Taken together, the results illustrate a central theme in the survey: Americans across the political spectrum share concerns about elections while disagreeing substantially about the sources of those concerns.

See the full report.

About the Center for Transparent and Trusted Elections

The Center for Transparent and Trusted Elections at UC San Diego brings together researchers and election practitioners to study public confidence in elections and identify evidence-based approaches to strengthening trust in democratic processes.

Read more news about: School of Social Sciences

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UCSD - University of California - San Diego published this content on September 15, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on September 15, 2026 at 18:11 UTC. If you believe the information included in the content is inaccurate or outdated and requires editing or removal, please contact us at [email protected]