Data Center Power Demand Begins to Surge Across the U.S.

The current adoption and usage of AI have led to a notable growth of development of data centers across the United States. To meet this demand, ISOs have been consistently increasing their load forecasts since 2024. In fact, we are already starting to see some of this load hit the grid, with overall demand for electricity up 2.3% year over year despite cooler temperatures. In this Energy Market Insight, we will be exploring current load trends in 2025 and discussing how these trends may change in the near future.

Average hourly load in the U.S. Lower 48 for 2025 is currently at just over 500 GWh, which is the highest load has been since 2015. While energy efficiency gains and behind-the-meter solar have helped decrease load over the last decade, large loads related to data centers, the oil and gas sector, and other industries have offset these decreases. Compared to just 2024, we are seeing increases in load across ERCOT, PJM, MISO, and SPP.

Again, the increases in load visible above are happening despite overall cooler temperatures across these regions. In all of the four ISOs witnessing load increases, average daily max temperatures were down in 2025 by between 1 and 2 degrees Fahrenheit compared to temperatures taken through September 2024. A notable difference can be seen in Dominion's service territory in PJM, where load is up 8.4% year over year even though average temperatures are down by 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit.

Average hourly load for Dominion is up 30% since 2019 for data through September. In addition, nine of Dominion's top ten peak days of load of all time have occurred this year. This is in large part due to the continued prominence of what has been dubbed "Data Center Alley," an area located in northern Virginia that is the world's largest hub of data centers. Data center capacity in this area, and load overall, will likely increase over the coming years, as Dominion mentioned during its Q1 earnings call that it has 40 GW of data center capacity in the contracting stage, with 10 GW having reached Electric Service Agreements.

Although Data Center Alley remains at the forefront, ERCOT is also becoming a key region for data center expansion. There is already substantial, low-cost power generation across Texas, and a favorable regulatory environment, making it attractive for new data center development. This growth is already being reflected in ERCOT's modeled substation loads, which ERCOT uses to estimate average demand across the region. Currently, three substations in the region have an average modeled load over 500 MW.

While the substation supplying the Freeport LNG Terminal has historically seen the most load on an average basis, two other substations with large loads are catching up. The IREN Childress Data Center is a data center in North Texas that has been operational at 750 MW since July 2024. There is also the Riot Platforms Rockdale Bitcoin Mine, which has a capacity of 700 MW and has been operational since 2023. ERCOT is currently forecasting 22.2 GW of data centers to come online through 2030, so we can expect to see more large loads of this nature deployed in the region.

Overall, new large loads are trending load higher in 2025 compared to 2024, despite cooler temperatures. Warmer temperatures in future years combined with data center growth would continue to drive load to new record highs. To meet this demand, we will likely see increases in natural gas-fired generation and delayed coal retirements, which FactSet Energy covered previously when we examined the impacts of the OBBBA. As this load continues to materialize across the United States, be sure to check back in with FactSet Insights for more energy market analysis.

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