EIA - Energy Information Administration
09/09/2025 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 09/09/2025 10:10
EIA expects U.S. drivers will spend the smallest share of their disposable income on gasoline since 2005
U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
WASHINGTON DC 20585
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
September 9, 2025
EIA expects U.S. drivers will spend the smallest share of their disposable income on gasoline since 2005
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. drivers will spend less than 2% of their personal disposable incomes on gasoline in 2025-the lowest share since 2005, excluding 2020. In its September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts significant decreases in oil and gasoline prices this year, consistent with its previous forecasts.
"The good news for consumers is that we are generally seeing lower prices at the pump, and we expect gasoline prices to keep trending lower through next year," said EIA Acting Administrator Steve Nalley.
| U.S. energy market indicators | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Brent crude oil spot price (dollars per barrel) | $81 | $68 | $51 |
| Retail gasoline price (dollars per gallon) | $3.30 | $3.10 | $2.90 |
| U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) | 13.2 | 13.4 | 13.3 |
| Natural gas price at Henry Hub (dollars per million British thermal units) | $2.20 | $3.50 | $4.30 |
| U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports (billion cubic feet per day) | 12 | 15 | 16 |
| Shares of U.S. electricity generation | |||
| Natural gas | 42% | 40% | 40% |
| Coal | 16% | 17% | 16% |
| Renewables | 23% | 24% | 26% |
| Nuclear | 19% | 18% | 18% |
| U.S. GDP (percentage change) | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% |
| U.S. CO2 emissions (billion metric tons) | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
|
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2025 Note: Values in this table are rounded and may not match values in other tables in this report. |
|||
Highlights from the September STEO include:
- Global oil prices: EIA continues to expect significantly lower oil prices in the near term. The STEO forecast shows the Brent crude oil price falling from $68 per barrel in August to average $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and around $50 per barrel in early 2026. OPEC+ leads global growth in oil production in EIA's forecast, which should result in growing inventories of oil and petroleum products. Those higher inventories pushed prices down in EIA's forecast.
- Gasoline prices and expenditures:EIA expects the U.S. average retail price for regular-grade gasoline to be about $3.10 per gallon this year and $2.90 per gallon in 2026. EIA expects in 2025, U.S. drivers' gasoline expenditures as a share of disposable personal income are likely to be the lowest since at least 2005-excluding 2020. EIA estimates expenditures will average less than 2% of disposable income this year, down from an average 2.4% over the previous decade.
- Natural gas prices: EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price will rise from an average of $2.91 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in August to $3.70/MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $4.30/MMBtu next year.
- Hydrocarbon production: With rising natural gas prices and falling oil prices, EIA expects drilling activity in the United States will be more centered in natural gas-intensive producing regions in 2026. EIA forecasts the price difference between crude oil and natural gas prices next year will be the lowest since 2005. In EIA's forecast, U.S. natural gas production remains relatively flat next year, but crude oil production declines by about 1% compared with this year.
- Electricity prices: EIA expects the average residential price of electricity in the United States will increase from 16.5 cents per kilowatthour in 2024 to about 17.9 cents per kilowatthour in 2026. The rising natural gas price is a key driver of rising retail electricity prices in EIA's forecast because natural gas is the top source of U.S. electricity generation.
- Electricity generation: Electricity generation has been growing rapidly this year as a result of growing demand for power from data centers and industrial customers. EIA expects total U.S. generation by the electric power sector will grow by 2.3% in 2025 and a further 3.0% next year. Solar power accounts for most of the increase in generation in both 2025 and 2026 in EIA's forecast.
The full September 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook is available on the EIA website.
The product described in this press release was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analysis, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government. The views in the product and this press release therefore should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department of Energy or other federal agencies.
EIA Program Contact: Tim Hess, [email protected] EIA Press Contact: Chris Higginbotham, [email protected]
EIA - Energy Information Administration published this content on September 09, 2025, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on September 09, 2025 at 16:10 UTC. If you believe the information included in the content is inaccurate or outdated and requires editing or removal, please contact us at [email protected]