Deep Dive in Five: Election Season 2024 with Melinda Jackson

As the nation gears up for the 2024 presidential election, the political landscape is more dynamic than ever. Voters are faced with pressing issues, from economic challenges to social justice movements, all playing a pivotal role in shaping the upcoming election. In this edition of "Deep Dive in Five," we turn to Melinda Jackson, professor of political science and dean of undergraduate education at San José State, an expert in political science and electoral behavior. With her extensive research and insights, she sheds light on the key factors influencing voter sentiment, the potential candidates on the horizon and what to expect in the weeks leading up to November 5th.

How has voter behavior shifted in recent years, and what trends do you expect to see in the 2024 presidential election?

Melinda Jackson (MJ): The American electorate has become increasingly polarized in recent years, which has led to very "locked-in" partisan voting in presidential elections. This is why we have seen so little movement in the polls for the 2024 election cycle, even with an unprecedented change at the top of the Democratic ticket, a number of important policy issues at stake and a tumultuous year in global politics.

One important trend in this election is the increasing influence of young votersand people of color, including Black, Latinx, Asian American and Native American voters. There are now 41 million Gen Z eligible voters (ages 18-34) in the US - including over eight million who are newly eligible in 2024. With the very close margins we are expecting in a handful of swing states, just a few thousand votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada or Arizona could easily decide the outcome of this election. As a result, we are seeing targeted outreach focused on these demographic groups from both the Democratic and Republican campaigns.

What role do third-party candidates and independent voters play in this election, and could they significantly impact the results?

MJ: Third-party candidates can play a significant role in US presidential elections, not because they have a realistic chance at winning, but because they may pull enough votes away from the two major parties to influence the Electoral College vote in a few key states. Third-party candidates may also bring attention to issues that the major parties then take up, such as environmental issues championed by the Green Party.

In an election as close as this one, independent voters will also have an important impact. According to the Gallup Poll, about 40% of American voters say they identify as independents in 2024. But when asked if they "lean toward" the Republican or Democratic Party, most of them pick a side, and less than 10% remain as pure independents. However, in those crucial battleground states in the Rust Belt (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) and the Sun Belt (Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina) where the margin of victory may come down to less than one percent, it is very likely to be those few independent voters who decide the outcome of this election.

To what extent do you think the Electoral College versus the popular vote will be a point of contention in this election, and should reforms be considered?

MJ: The Electoral College is a uniquely American phenomenon, which leads to a particular set of political strategies in presidential elections. Because all but two states - Nebraska and Maine - award all of their Electoral College votes to the candidate who wins a plurality of the state vote, and more than 80% of the states are expected to vote reliably "red" or "blue," this means that presidential campaigns end up focusing on the half dozen or so battleground states that will ultimately decide the outcome. The irony of this system is that California, which has the largest number of EC votes in the country (54!) gets very little attention in the presidential race because it is all but certain that all of those votes will go to the Democratic candidate.

While the national popular vote and the Electoral College vote are usually in alignment, we have seen some notable examples in recent years when they have diverged, including the 2000 contest between George W. Bush (R) and Al Gore (D), and the 2016 election between Hillary Clinton (D) and Donald Trump (R). Both of those elections went to the Republican winner in the Electoral College, even though the Democratic candidate had a majority in the popular vote. There have been a number of proposals to reformor abolishthe Electoral College, but none have gained significant traction to date. It is notable, however, that a recent Pew Research Center pollfinds that 63% of Americans favor having the national popular vote determine the winner of the presidential election, rather than the Electoral College. If we see another discrepancy between the EC and the popular vote in 2024, these calls for reform will certainly increase.

How might social media and disinformation campaigns affect voter turnout and opinions in the 2024 election compared to previous cycles?

MJ: Many Americans, particularly younger voters, rely on social media as a primary source of political information today. There are both upsides and downsides to this reality. On the plus side, TikTok and Instagram are fun and engaging, and often use humor and parody to build a sense of political community among their users. On the other hand, there is no built-in fact checking on social media platforms, unlike traditional media venues like newspapers and TV that have a professional editorial process. The potential for incorrect, misleading or deliberately false information via social media is a serious issue.

We now know that there have been coordinated disinformation campaigns targeting American voters via social media since at least 2016, so this is a very real concern. The best way to counteract these potential influences is to engage and educate our voting population to be smart consumers of online information, which involves the kind of critical thinking and information literacy skills that we are focused on throughout our undergraduate curriculum at SJSU. Empowering our students to identify their own political interests and make informed vote choices is a fundamental aspect of our mission at SJSU that we aim to support throughout our students' educational journey.

How is President's initiative, The Future of Humanity and Civic Engagement initiative going to dovetail with the election over the coming weeks?

MJ: The Future of Humanity and Civic Engagement Initiativeat SJSU is highlighting the many ways that we are working with students, faculty, staff and our local community to reaffirm our commitment to teaching and learning about civic engagement and ensuring that our campus remains a space for open dialogue and free speech while valuing diverse opinions. We recently hosted a two-day event focused on Free Speech at the Crossroads: A Silicon Valley Dialogue, with the Georgetown Free Speech Project. And we are looking forward to hosting the Public Interest Technology - University Network(PIT-UN) national summit just after the election, on November 7-8.

The SJSU VotesProject has been engaged in voter registration, education and outreach activities throughout the year, including a Voting Festival held on September 17th - which was both National Voter Registration Dayand Constitution Day.

From November 2-5, SJSU will also host a Santa Clara County Voting Center in the Provident Credit Union Event Center, allowing folks from our campus and surrounding communities to vote in person or drop off their absentee ballots right here on campus!

Learn more about voter resources offered by San José State University Elections Center.

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