What’s Going To Happen With McDonald’s Stock Soon

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McDonald's (MCD) stock has lost 16.3% over the past year, counting dividends, while the S&P 500 returned 15.0%. On its August 4, 2026 call, management conceded that U.S. comparable sales were slightly negative in July, and the company is counting on sales outside the U.S. to speed up. Below are the events most likely to move McDonald's stock over the next six months.

Comparable Sales In The U.S.

McDonald's is expected to report fiscal Q3 2026 results in November 2026, and U.S. comparable sales are the figure most in question. Management said on the August call that these sales grew 0.8% in fiscal Q2 2026 before turning slightly negative in July.

The U.S. brought in $10.8 billion of McDonald's $26.9 billion revenue in fiscal 2025. Customer traffic fell short of management's own expectations in fiscal Q2 2026, and the company traced about two-thirds of that shortfall to its value push. Only 60% to 65% of restaurants priced the new menu of items under $3 as recommended, while the company pulled back on digital offers to pay for its McValue program. Management also said too many deployments overwhelmed restaurant teams in the quarter, which slowed service. The company expects restaurant operations to improve fastest, since they are within the company's control.

The November report will show whether U.S. comparable sales returned to growth in fiscal Q3 2026.

International Comparable Sales

The same November 2026 report will show whether sales outside the U.S. sped up, as management expected on the August call. Comparable sales in the International Operated Markets grew 1.5% in fiscal Q2 2026, driven by Germany, Australia and the U.K., and management expects faster growth there in fiscal Q3 2026.

That segment brought in $13.6 billion of revenue in fiscal 2025, more than the U.S. and the most of any McDonald's segment. Comparable sales in the International Developmental Licensed Markets segment grew 1.9% in fiscal Q2 2026, and management expects them to speed up too. China held back the segment's growth, and management expects China's consumer backdrop to stay challenging in the near term.

Comparable sales in the International Operated Markets are the figure to watch in November.

Restaurant Openings

McDonald's plans to open about 2,600 restaurants in 2026, and management said in August that it remains on track. New restaurants already add to sales growth. In fiscal Q2 2026, system-wide sales grew 4% in constant currency, against 1.3% growth in global comparable sales, and management credited the growing contribution from new openings.

In its latest quarterly filing, the company said it expected capital spending of $3.7 billion to $3.9 billion in 2026, mostly on new restaurants in the U.S. and the International Operated Markets. Management has already moved its goal of 50,000 restaurants worldwide to 2028 from the end of 2027, citing a pressured consumer and higher development costs.

The count of restaurants opened in 2026 is the figure to watch when McDonald's reports fiscal Q4 2026, expected in February 2027.

Could You Hold McDonald's Through These Reports?

McDonald's shares fell 32.3% from their close on February 27, 2026, to their close on October 7, 2026, the stock's largest fall from a high over the past year. They closed at $249.47 on October 27, 2026, about 8% above that low. Holding through the next two reports means being ready for a drop like that again.

U.S. customer traffic fell short of management's own expectations in fiscal Q2 2026 and comparable sales slipped in July. At its September 23, 2026 Investor Day, McDonald's targeted an operating margin in the low-to-mid 50% range by 2030, and its CEO said he expects industry traffic in its wholly owned markets to stay flat while inflation remains elevated. If you could watch your McDonald's holding drop that far again without selling, it is a size you can keep through these reports. If not, a smaller one is.

How To Act On MCD?

Not necessarily on McDonald's alone, if your goal is long-term wealth. Wealth is built by owning the companies that keep outperforming, the leaders of their industries, wherever they are. Here are two companies from the same industry that have beaten it. Over the five years to October 2026, Darden Restaurants stock rose 76%, and Cheesecake Factory stock rose 197%, while McDonald's stock rose 15.5%.

Finding companies like these takes comparison across industries and sectors, and that is what the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio does. It holds 30 quality companies in equal weight and, since its inception in September 2020, has returned more than 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. See how we find the leaders.

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