Trade Desk Stock: Strong Cash Flow Poised for a Re-Rating

Trade Desk Stock: Strong Cash Flow Poised for a Re-Rating?

We think Trade Desk (TTD) stock is worth a look: It is growing, producing cash, and available at a significant valuation discount. Companies like this can use cash to fuel additional revenue growth, or simply pay their shareholders through dividends or buybacks. Either move makes them attractive to the market.

The stock is available at a significant discount to its 3-month, 1-year, and 2-year highs, making it a potential bargain. But before coming to that conclusion, it is critical to understand why the stock has declined, and where do its fundamentals - including growth, cash flow, and margins - stand today.

TTD Has Strong Fundamentals

• Cash Yield: Trade Desk offers an impressive cash flow yield of 8.5%.
• Growing: Revenue growth of 15.5% over the last twelve months means that the cash pile is going to grow.
• Valuation Discount: TTD stock is currently trading at 31% below its 3-month high, 77% below its 1-year high, and 85% below its 2-year high.

Below is a quick comparison of TTD fundamentals with S&P medians.

*LTM: Last Twelve Months

While TTD may sound like a good opportunity, there is always meaningful risk involved when exposing yourself to single stock trade. One of the ways to understand that risk is look at how TTD stock has behaved during past market crashes. In other words, how low can it really go, and are you willing to take that risk?

Other Stocks Like TTD

Not ready to act on TTD? You could consider these alternatives:

1. Boston Scientific (BSX)
2. Nike (NKE)
3. Ubiquiti (UI)

These stocks have positive revenue growth, high free cash flow yield, and are trading at a meaningful discount to 3M, 1Y, and 2Y highs.

A portfolio that was built starting 12/31/2016 with stocks that fulfill the criteria above would have resulted in average 6-month and 12-month forward returns of 25.7% and 57.9% respectively, with win rate (percentage of picks returning positive) of above 70%.

Portfolios Over Single Stock Picks

The fundamental profile of TTD - robust cash yield paired with a multi-year valuation trough - represents a potential mean-reversion signal. However, while individual stock trades can look compelling, they trades carry idiosyncratic risks that even elite cash flows cannot fully hedge.

The Trefis High Quality Portfolio (HQ) follows objective and rule-based approach. By diversifying across 30 high-conviction names, the HQ strategy has outpaced the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000.