Recently, the Pacific Northwest - and many other areas of the U.S. - have experienced lengthy timelines for developing new electricity generation resources, transmission lines, and other power system infrastructure that helps deliver power from where it's generated to where it's needed.

What if these delays continue into the future in the Northwest? How will the region still be able to maintain an adequate power system? What if things change and the pace of development accelerates? Forthcoming analysis by the Power Division staff will seek to answer these questions this fall. At the Council's September meeting in Eugene, Ore., Power Planning Director Jennifer Light explained the scope of this analysis, called the resource and transmission risk scenario. (Read presentation | watch video)

Staff is currently performing computer modeling analyzing the Council's hydro operations scenario. They intend to bring results of a needs assessment from this scenario to the Council's Oct. 14-16 meeting in Tamarack, Idaho. The resource and transmission risk scenario will follow hydro operations, and Light said the goal is to begin modeling for it in late October or November. The full resource modeling results of each scenario will inform how the Council ultimately develops the Ninth Plan's cost-effective resource strategy, which will assure the Northwest of an adequate, efficient, economical, and reliable power supply. The full resource modeling results are expected by winter 2026, and the Council will devote the spring to discussing and evaluating the results as well as creating the resource strategy.

In March 2024, Power Division staff published an issue paper seeking feedback from regional partners and the public as they were gearing up to prepare work on the Ninth Power Plan. Commenters identified resource and transmission timelines and risks as a key issue for the Ninth Plan. They encouraged the Council to test sensitivities such as:

• Conservative or pessimistic assumptions about the availability of new resources, including the timeline and availability of emerging technologies.
• Accelerated transmission development timelines and the impact on resource decisions, as well as delayed transmission timelines
• Varying cost and availability assumptions for commercially available resources
• Cost of compliance with existing laws and regulations

This spring, staff explained how they're analyzing established technologies like solar, land-based wind, or natural gas, as well as energy efficiency and demand response. The Council is also planning to model emerging technologies, both on the supply and demand side, using proxies for a clean baseload, clean long-duration storage, clean medium duration storage, and energy efficiency.

While the Council does not do transmission system planning, transmission availability and capacity are an increasingly important element to the Council's power planning. The Council plans to rely on the analysis of the Western Transmission Expansion Coalition to inform potential transmission availability. The WestTEC is an industry-led initiative that convenes states, BPA, utilities, tribes, public interest groups, energy providers, and transmission companies, among others.

The coalition will produce a study looking out over 10- and 20-year time periods. This will include detailed descriptions of required infrastructure, including locations, technologies, and upgrades; comprehensive cost estimates and assessments of benefits for the Western region; preliminary routing options to support permitting, siting, and construction feasibility studies; and transmission alternative review, highlighting trade-offs and reasons for selecting preferred options. The Council plans to leverage these results to inform different transmission build out looks in its scenario modeling.

In explaining the scope of the resource and transmission risk scenario, Light spelled out its six sensitivities and what each will analyze.

Constrained new resources and transmission options: How would limitations in building new resources change the Northwest's resource decisions?

This is designed to capture the risk of delays in developing new resources and transmission, as well as the uncertainty of emerging resource options. Staff will limit the near-term availability of renewables, natural gas, and battery storage in the near-term, which will cover 2027-2046. Emerging technologies options for demand side resources like energy efficiency will be removed, and emerging technologies for supply side resources will be delayed by 10 years. Only the existing transmission system will be considered.

Changing transmission availability: How would the pace of transmission development affect new resource acquisition in the Northwest?

This sensitivity will explore how different transmission system build-outs affect new resource additions to the Northwest's electricity grid. It will leverage WestTEC's 10-year study results for transmission expansion in the Northwest, as well as a future where even more transmission comes online in the region.

Changing emerging technology costs: How does uncertainty for the cost of emerging technologies impact new resource acquisition?

This sensitivity recognizes the inherent uncertainty for the costs of emerging technologies. It's intended to inform at what potential future price point emerging technologies might make the most sense for meeting future energy needs in the Northwest. This sensitivity will test a 50% increase in costs, and a 25% decrease in costs.

Limited short-duration battery availability: How would new resource acquisition change if the Northwest was limited in how much battery storage it could add?

Short-duration energy storage primarily uses lithium ion-based batteries, which are in high demand in the U.S. This sensitivity explores the impacts of limiting its availability in the first six years of the Ninth Plan. It would also limit demand response potential that's related to lithium-ion batteries.

Slower demand side resource availability: How would new resource acquisition change if demand side resources took longer to develop?

This sensitivity limits demand-side resource availability instead of supply side resources. The ramp rates for energy efficiency and demand response will be delayed.

Evolving federal policy landscape: How do policies at the federal level impact resource decisions in our region?

Light said staff will model a sensitivity where federal tax credits for renewable energy projects and emissions requirements for new gas generation return at a point in the future. This analysis is intended to capture how significant of an influence changes in federal policy are to new resource acquisition and development in the Northwest.