Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited

12/15/2025 | Press release | Archived content

Vietnam set to enter 2026 on solid foundations – November 2025

Earnings strength continued to underpin Vietnam's equity market in October, even as the index entered a period of healthy consolidation. The broader macro backdrop remained supportive, with industrial activity and investment flows reinforcing the recovery.

Macroeconomics:

  • Total trade reached a record $839.8bn in 11M25 as exports and imports rose 16.1% and 18.4% YoY despite weather-related logistics disruptions.
  • Disbursed public investment and FDI reached $28.0bn and $23.6bn, both higher YoY, while CPI averaged 3.3% YTD, comfortably below the official 4.5% ceiling.
  • Manufacturing continued to recover, with industrial production up 10.8% YoY and PMI at 53.8, marking a fifth month of business optimism.

Stock Market:

  • The VNI gained 3.0% MoM in total return USD terms, with liquidity softening to $960mn from $1.4bn.
  • 237,000 new accounts lifted the retail base to 11.6 million, well ahead of the government's 2030 target of 11 million total accounts.
  • Foreign investors continued to withdraw around $260mn, taking YTD outflows to a combined $5.2bn, though the slowing pace of redemptions and intermittent net buying were encouraging signals.

Chart of the Month

Monthly Insights: Earnings strength meets market consolidation

November's data points to continued broad-based expansion, even as severe weather caused temporary disruption across Vietnam. Industrial production rose 10.8% YoY, extending the recovery in manufacturing after last year's slowdown. Retail sales of goods and services grew 9.1% YoY in the first 11 months, underscoring steady domestic consumption. Public investment disbursement reached $28.0bn YTD, up 26.8% YoY, while registered and disbursed FDI were $33.7bn and $23.6bn, both higher YoY. In parallel, the government announced a $37.4bn programme covering 198 strategic projects to be rolled out in December, with funding shared between the state and domestic private capital. Taken together, these trends underline investment momentum and signal a stronger focus on internal capacity, with a deliberate effort to expand the role of Vietnamese enterprises in the next phase of growth.

External trade softened, in part reflecting weather-related logistics disruptions, but 11M25 exports and imports were still up 16.1% and 18.4% YoY, taking total turnover to a record $839.8bn. PMI came in at 53.8, holding firmly in expansionary territory and signalling sustained business optimism for a fifth consecutive month, with nearly half of respondents expecting stronger output over the next year. Inflation stayed well below the 4.5% ceiling, with headline CPI averaging 3.3% in 11M25. Food prices remain sensitive to severe weather, but the combination of expanding industry, steady consumption, strong investment, and tourism recovery provides a solid platform as Vietnam concludes 2025. This stability in inflation continues to support an accommodative monetary policy, even amid the recent uptick in interbank and deposit rates. We will continue to monitor these movements, but for now the rise appears driven more by short-term credit-demand pressures and is unlikely to indicate any shift in the broader macroeconomic policy stance.

Against this backdrop, Vietnam's equity market recovered in November. The VNI rose 3.0% MoM in USD terms, although combined average daily trading value fell to about $960mn from $1.4bn in the prior two months as investors consolidated positions after a strong run, consistent with a market digesting gains rather than a change in fundamentals. Domestic participation remained a key support, with 237,000 new trading accounts opened in November to now total 11.6 million, already surpassing the government's 2030 target of 11 million. The broadening local investor base is deepening market liquidity and reducing dependence on any single investor group. Foreign investors remained net sellers, however, with outflows of around $260mn taking the YTD total to about $5.2bn. Nonetheless, selling pressure slowed and there were periods of selective net buying. While it is still too early to draw firm conclusions, this may signal easing selling pressure and the potential for improved foreign flows in the near term. Primary market activity also stayed firm, highlighted by the VPS Securities IPO and a healthy pipeline of listings expected in 2026.

Vietnam is therefore entering 2026 on a firm macro footing, with broad-based growth, contained inflation and a more prominent private sector underpinning a solid earnings outlook. Infrastructure spending, FDI and a growing domestic investor base should support capital formation and equity-market returns.external conditions tighten. The next stage of progress will be defined less by sentiment and more by execution.

Read more about our previous monthly report Vietnam Market Insights - October 2025 here.

Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited published this content on December 15, 2025, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on December 31, 2025 at 07:45 UTC. If you believe the information included in the content is inaccurate or outdated and requires editing or removal, please contact us at [email protected]