Insight Guru Inc.
10/26/2026 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 10/26/2026 10:57
Sherwin-Williams Earnings Ahead: What Past Reactions Say About The Stock
Sherwin-Williams (NYSE:SHW) is scheduled to report its earnings on Tuesday, October 27, 2026. The company has a market value of about $82.2 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $24.4 billion in revenue and $4.0 billion in operating profit, with net income of $2.7 billion.
The reaction will turn on how the results and guidance land against expectations. Before the release, it helps to know how the stock has behaved after previous reports, and whether an early move has tended to carry on.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
The Post-Earnings Record For Sherwin-Williams Stock
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 20 earnings releases in the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 55% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share rises to 64%, across 11 releases.
- The median of the 11 positive 1D returns is 3.6%, and the median of the 9 negative ones is -3.3%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 9.4% and -8.9%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D), and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/28/2026 | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% |
| 4/28/2026 | -3.5% | -7.6% | -7.5% |
| 1/29/2026 | 1.4% | 5.5% | 3.7% |
| 10/28/2025 | 5.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% |
| 7/22/2025 | -0.4% | -1.5% | 8.0% |
| 4/29/2025 | 4.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% |
| 1/30/2025 | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| 10/22/2024 | -5.3% | -4.8% | -2.0% |
| 7/23/2024 | 6.9% | 9.4% | 10.5% |
| 4/23/2024 | -2.2% | -1.0% | 0.5% |
| 1/25/2024 | 0.9% | 1.1% | 7.2% |
| 10/24/2023 | -1.5% | -1.3% | 14.9% |
| 7/25/2023 | 3.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| 4/25/2023 | -0.7% | -2.0% | -3.8% |
| 1/26/2023 | -8.9% | -1.6% | -10.3% |
| 10/25/2022 | 3.6% | 5.9% | 14.8% |
| 7/27/2022 | -8.8% | -4.2% | -5.6% |
| 4/26/2022 | 9.4% | 8.4% | 4.1% |
| 1/27/2022 | -3.3% | 0.5% | -8.5% |
| 10/26/2021 | 2.0% | 0.1% | 5.9% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -1.8% | -6.6% |
| Max Positive | 9.4% | 9.4% | 14.9% |
| Max Negative | -8.9% | -7.6% | -10.3% |
Does The First Move Carry On?
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. Over five years, all of these correlations are below 0.40 in absolute terms, so the early post-earnings move has not reliably predicted what followed. The one exception is the last three years, when the 1D move and the next 5 days moved together (0.43), the opposite of the five-year pattern (−0.32), which suggests the relationship isn't stable.
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | -0.32 | -0.03 | -0.10 |
| 3 Years | 0.43 | -0.06 | -0.30 |
Do Peers That Report First Offer A Clue?
RPM International (RPM) reported first in 16 of the last 20 quarters, usually about 20 days ahead, and 3M (MMM) in 10 of them, usually about a week ahead. Both have already reported this season. The table lists the 17 quarters in which at least one of them reported first, comparing each peer's one-day reaction to its own earnings with Sherwin-Williams' one-day reaction to the report that followed. The correlations are MMM (0.40) and RPM (0.21); the closer to 1, the more the peer's reaction has foreshadowed Sherwin-Williams'.
| SHW Earnings Date | SHW 1D | MMM 1D | RPM 1D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/28/2026 | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.8% |
| 4/28/2026 | -3.5% | -1.9% | 12.4% |
| 1/29/2026 | 1.4% | -7.0% | 1.7% |
| 10/28/2025 | 5.5% | 7.7% | -0.6% |
| 7/22/2025 | -0.4% | -3.7% | n/a |
| 4/29/2025 | 4.8% | 8.1% | -9.1% |
| 1/30/2025 | 1.4% | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| 10/22/2024 | -5.3% | n/a | 6.3% |
| 4/23/2024 | -2.2% | n/a | -5.8% |
| 1/25/2024 | 0.9% | -11.0% | -3.0% |
| 10/24/2023 | -1.5% | n/a | 6.3% |
| 4/25/2023 | -0.7% | n/a | -3.7% |
| 1/26/2023 | -8.9% | -6.2% | -13.1% |
| 10/25/2022 | 3.6% | n/a | 3.3% |
| 7/27/2022 | -8.8% | 4.9% | -0.7% |
| 4/26/2022 | 9.4% | n/a | 4.9% |
| 1/27/2022 | -3.3% | n/a | 0.3% |
| Correlation | - | 0.40 | 0.21 |
Trading around earnings is a bet on a single event. If you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock such as SHW can offer, consider the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio : about 30 stocks selected for consistent cash generation, strong margins and resilient balance sheets, with a track record of outperforming a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the Russell 2000.
Insight Guru Inc. published this content on October 26, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on October 26, 2026 at 16:57 UTC. If you believe the information included in the content is inaccurate or outdated and requires editing or removal, please contact us at [email protected]