Study maps path to cut Europe’s gas dependence exposed by war

The war in Ukraine sent shockwaves through Europe's energy system, exposing how deeply the region depends on imported natural gas, and how vulnerable that dependence can be during geopolitical crises. A new Cornell-led study finds that Europe could sharply reduce that vulnerability while accelerating climate action by expanding renewable energy and clean technologies already within reach.

By tracking sector-specific reductions in natural gas use rather than focusing solely on emissions targets or costs, the research, published Jan. 7 in Nature Communications, shows that strategic deployment of wind and solar power, combined with electrification and green hydrogen, could eliminate more than half of the European Union's natural gas use by 2050.

The study aligns with the goals of Europe Union's carbon reduction targets as well as the European Commission's REPowerEU Plan, adopted in 2022 in response to geopolitical pressures to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels. But where REPowerEU outlines what Europe aims to achieve, the Cornell analysis shows how those goals play out in practice - identifying where clean energy investments deliver the greatest impact, what tradeoffs emerge and where current strategies leave critical blind spots.

"The energy disruptions following the Ukraine war were not just a short-term crisis, they revealed a structural weakness," said Fengqi You, the paper's corresponding author and the Roxanne E. and Michael J. Zak Professor in Energy Systems Engineering at Cornell Engineering. "Our analysis shows that reducing natural gas dependence is one of the most effective ways to improve long-term energy security and cut emissions at the same time."

The study's first author is doctoral student Apoorv Lal, with Nathan Preuss as a co-author. Both are doctoral students in You's lab.

Using forward-looking energy system optimization modeling, the study finds that electrification powered by wind and solar can eliminate up to 50.9% of European Union natural gas consumption by 2050, but only if renewables are explicitly routed toward heating, light industrial processes and road transport - sectors where gas dependence is highest and alternatives are already viable. Without that targeting, even aggressive renewable growth leaves vulnerabilities.

For sectors that are difficult to electrify - including steel, cement, chemicals and heavy trucking - green hydrogen produced from renewable electricity plays a targeted role. Rather than treating hydrogen as a universal solution, the study identifies specific industrial uses where it meaningfully reduces gas dependence, replacing more than 10% of current natural gas consumption in those hard-to-decarbonize sectors.

The research also tests more moderate pathways that align with technologies and policies already under discussion in Europe. Even without the most aggressive assumptions, the modeling shows substantial reductions in gas use and emissions.

"Energy security and climate goals are often treated as competing priorities," You said. "What we find is that, in this case, they strongly reinforce each other."

Although the analysis focuses on Europe, the findings have broader relevance for regions worldwide grappling with how to protect energy systems from geopolitical risk while meeting climate targets, according to You.

The research was supported by the National Science Foundation and Schmidt Sciences.