Economic Outlook: Key Forces Shaping Corn’s Future

The National Corn Growers Association today released its economic outlook for 2026 outlining six key forces expected to drive corn prices and farm margins in the year ahead. The forecast underscores the need for new and expanded markets for corn growers.

"As the report shows, U.S. corn production is increasing with sustained high corn acres and productivity gains," said report author and NCGA Chief Economists Krista Swanson. "Global corn production is at a record and growing. Without a shift in demand, rising domestic and global corn supply adds downward pressure on corn prices for U.S. farmers unless new demand materializes."

Financial strain stays top of mind for growers facing near-record production costs and low corn prices. The 2026 forecast cost is only 1% lower than the record $928 per acre in 2022, but the forecasted $4.10 per bushel market year average corn price is 37% lower than $6.54 for the 2022 crop.

Despite the challenges noted, the outlook identifies significant opportunity, not only in the near term but also in the long term with growth potential for ethanol in emerging markets beyond on-road use that has bolstered corn in recent decades.

"Amid high production levels, expanding and diversity demand is essential," said Swanson. "Decisions made this year-on trade, energy policy, and ethanol expansion-will shape the future profitability and resilience of the U.S. corn industry."

NCGA is pushing for passage of legislation that would expand access to fuels with 15% ethanol blends across the nation during summer months. The organization is also working to expand foreign market access and encouraging renewal of USMCA.

Read the Economic Outlook