Could You Catch The Next Run In Cisco Stock

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Cisco Systems (CSCO) stock returned 57.3% in the year to October 28, 2026, against 14.0% for the S&P 500. Over that year, management reported a jump in orders for its AI networking gear from the largest cloud companies. If that run could have been caught early, Cisco's calls and filed results from before October 2025 should already show the business building. So what was Cisco saying back then?

Cisco's Management Flagged AI Orders In November 2024

During the fiscal Q1 2025 call on November 13, 2024, management said Cisco expected to beat its target of $1 billion in AI orders for that fiscal year. Because the company provided its own forecast on a public call almost a year before the period measured here, a reader could have acted on it.

Yet that $1 billion target was small next to the $56.7 billion in revenue Cisco reported for fiscal 2025. You could hear about AI orders early, but they still made up a small part of Cisco.

Did Cisco's Filed Results Back Up Management In 2025?

Total sales turned up, but full-year networking sales did not. Revenue fell 5.6% from a year earlier in the quarter ended October 2024, and was up 11.4% by the quarter ended April 2025, in results Cisco filed on May 20, 2025.

Management went further over the summer. During the fiscal Q4 2025 call on August 13, 2025, management reported record orders for AI infrastructure from its largest cloud customers.

Cisco's full-year results for fiscal 2025, which ended in July 2025, did not yet show that shift. Networking sales fell 3.2% for the full year while security sales rose 59.5%, meaning Cisco's return to growth that year came from outside networking. Management credited Splunk, a business Cisco was still integrating, with security orders that more than doubled.

How Big Was Cisco's AI Business By Fiscal 2026?

It was still small. Management said about 6% of Cisco's fiscal 2026 revenue came from AI infrastructure for the largest cloud companies, up from less than 2% in fiscal 2025.

The networking business, which makes up more than half of Cisco's revenue, also grew 22.5% in fiscal 2026 after shrinking the year before. Investors also paid more for each dollar of Cisco's sales, as the price-to-sales multiple rose from 4.8 in September 2025 to 6.7 in September 2026.

The year measured here also began after a rise was under way. Cisco stock had already gained 27.1% in the six months to October 27, 2025.

Are Cisco's AI Orders Still Growing Now?

They were at Cisco's last report. During the August 12, 2026 call, management said orders from the largest cloud companies at least doubled from a year earlier in the quarter ended July 2026. Their AI infrastructure orders reached $4 billion in that quarter, up from more than $800 million a year earlier. For all of fiscal 2026, AI infrastructure orders from those customers came to $9.3 billion, about 4.5 times the fiscal 2025 total.

The filed results now show the growth as well. Cisco's sales growth sped up through fiscal 2026, from 7.5% in the quarter ended October 2025 to 17.6% in the quarter ended July 2026. The shares have lagged since the summer, losing 2.5% from July 30 to October 28, 2026, while the S&P 500 returned 4.4%. That stretch includes an 8.4% one-day fall on August 13, after the latest report, as investors weighed pressure on gross margins.

So management is still reporting rising AI orders, and the growth now shows up in Cisco's sales. Management also said these orders are large, uneven and usually placed well ahead of time. When Cisco reports in November 2026, orders from the largest cloud companies, which management said it will update through the year, are the figure to watch. Management has also guided to $7.5 billion of AI infrastructure revenue from those customers in fiscal 2027.

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