Nigeria strengthens agricultural policy planning with modeling workshop

19 June 2026

A four-day capacity-building workshop on the application of agricultural market and policy models for policy analysis in Nigeria was officially launched on 8 June 2026. The joint initiative by the IITA-CGIAR Socioeconomics Unit, the Innovation Lab for Policy Leadership in Agriculture and Food Security (PiLAF), the National Agricultural Development Fund (NADF), and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome.

Beyond training, the workshop represented a strategic investment in Nigeria's ability to plan, forecast, and transform its agrifood systems using robust, evidence-based approaches. It brought together stakeholders committed to strengthening agricultural and food systems through data-driven policy and forward-looking analysis. The training was facilitated by FAO technical experts Sergio René and Abdi Ali.

Speaking at the opening ceremony, the Executive Secretary of NADF, Muhammed Abu Ibrahim, represented by Emmanuel Saseun, underscored the initiative's significance. He noted that incomplete or fragmented data have often constrained agricultural policy decisions in Nigeria.

"For too long, critical agricultural policy decisions have been made with incomplete or fragmented data. A baseline Agrifood Outlook for Nigeria, built on rigorous partial equilibrium modeling and scenario analysis, will enable both policy actors and private sector players to answer 'what if' questions," he said.

Also addressing participants, PiLAF's Principal Investigator, Prof. Olusanya Olubusoye, welcomed attendees and acknowledged the collaborative efforts of NADF and IITA. He emphasized the importance of grounding policies in reliable data, rigorous analysis, and a clear understanding of future risks and opportunities.

Prof. Olubusoye highlighted that Nigeria's agrifood system is undergoing rapid transformation, driven by population growth, urbanization, climate change, technological advancements, evolving consumer preferences, and shifting market dynamics. In this context, he stressed that anticipating future trends and assessing policy impacts is no longer optional but essential.

He further described the development of Nigeria's Baseline Agrifood Outlook as a critical step toward institutionalizing forward-looking analysis to guide investments, enhance policy coherence, strengthen food security, and support sustainable agricultural transformation.

"PiLAF remains committed to influencing the agrifood system by providing platforms for knowledge exchange, supporting policy innovation, strengthening institutional capacity, and promoting evidence-informed decision-making," he added.

Delivering remarks on behalf of IITA's Deputy Director General for Partnerships for Delivery and Scaling, Dr Tahirou Abdoulaye, the Head of Capacity Development Office, Sore Sougrynoma Zainatou, welcomed participants and emphasized the relevance of building analytical capacity in Nigeria.

She pointed out that Nigeria has demonstrated strong policy ambition through frameworks such as the National Development Plan (2021-2025) and the National Agricultural Technology and Innovation Policy (NATIP) (2022-2027), both of which promote institutional strengthening, inclusive growth, and economic diversification.

However, she noted that policymakers are increasingly faced with complex decisions involving investment prioritization, reform sequencing, and trade-offs between productivity, climate resilience, inclusion, and nutrition.

"The missing piece in providing rapid responses to government is having strong, in-country expertise to develop dynamic system-level models that can generate evidence on policy shocks and supply responses linked to improved agricultural technologies," she said.

A key highlight of the opening ceremony was the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between IITA and PiLAF. The agreement reinforces collaboration in advancing agricultural policy research, capacity development, and evidence-driven decision-making for sustainable agrifood system transformation in Nigeria.

The workshop features a combination of technical lectures and hands-on training sessions. Discussions are structured across four days, covering the foundations of partial equilibrium modeling; crop modeling, including baseline projections and scenario analysis; livestock modeling and system integration; and advanced modeling applications, culminating in discussions on the way forward.

Participants and facilitators alike emphasized the importance of strengthening local capacity in modeling tools to support national planning and investment decision-making. They agreed that enhancing Nigeria's analytical capacity will enable policymakers to better anticipate and respond to emerging challenges and opportunities in the agrifood sector.

Contributed by 'Timilehin Osunde