Arable Market Report – 13 July 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Grains

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Market drivers

Grain prices reached multi-week highs last week due to the re-escalation of the conflicts in the Black Sea and Middle East, plus concerns about European crops.

Until Friday, the gains had been capped by rapid harvest progress bringing new supplies to market, and positive early yield results from the Black Sea.

But on Friday, Ukrainian strikes against Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov led Russia to temporarily stop shipping moving from the Don River into the Sea of Azov.

This could disrupt Russian grain exports, as according to sources reported by Reuters, almost 25% of Russian wheat exports pass through the Sea.

As a result, Dec-26 Paris wheat futures rose sharply and reached a seven-week high on Friday, while Dec-26 Chicago wheat futures reached a six-week high.

Meanwhile, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed after the USA and Iran again traded air strikes. Nearby Brent crude oil futures gained 5.4% last week, closing Friday at $76.01/barrel.

In Western Europe and Hungary, the hot, dry weather continues to impact maize crops, which are at the crucial 'silking' stage. As of 6 July, just 47% of French maize was in good or very good condition, down from last week's 58% (FranceAgriMer).

Trade association Coceral, cut its estimate of the EU-27 maize crop by 4.5 Mt from its 10 June estimate. At 52.7 Mt the crop would be the lowest since 2007 and could push more animal feed demand towards wheat and barley in Europe.

Coceral also cut its forecast for the EU-27+UK wheat and barley crops from June, by 2.9 Mt and 1.2 Mt respectively, due to the weather.

On Friday evening, the USDA cut its estimates of global wheat and maize stocks in 2026/27 by slightly more than the market was expecting. This puts more pressure on crops that are still growing or yet to be planted e.g. in South America, to perform and avoid further cuts to stock forecasts.

In the short term, the market is closely watching the US and Black Sea maize crops. These are also silking, but so far, it's thought that rain has helped support crop conditions.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

UK delivered cereal prices

With harvest in full flow, the market focus was reportedly on executing existing deals last week.

Feed wheat delivered into East Anglia in November was priced at £182.50/t on Thursday 9 July, up £4.00/t from a week earlier. The price for harvest delivery was £8.50/t lower than that for November at £174.00/t.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

n/a = not available

Rapeseed

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Market drivers

Oilseed markets were supported by an increase in geopolitical risk and crude oil prices, as well as weather concerns in the USA and Europe. Higher export demand for US soya beans was also a supportive factor for prices.

Chicago soyabean (Nov-26) and soya bean oil (Dec-26) futures increased by 3.8% and 5.4%, respectively, over the week. Nearby Brent crude oil futures rose 5.4% last week, reaching $76.01/barrel on Friday.

The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the USDA has decreased the estimated global soya bean ending stocks for 2026/27 by 0.71 Mt to 124.17 Mt. World and US soya bean ending stocks were lower than the average trade estimate, which supported Chicago futures on Friday.

According to the USDA, net export sales of soya beans for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons totalled 54.3 Kt and 408.3 Kt, respectively, for the week ending 2 July. For the 2026/27 season, export sales were higher than at the same time last year.

China also bought at least five more cargoes of US soya beans last week, as Beijing stepped up its purchases to meet the 25 Mt annual target announced by the White House (LSEG).

The USDA's Crop Progress Report estimated that 64% of the planted soya bean crop was in good or excellent condition as of 5 July. This figure is slightly lower than the previous week's figure of 65%, and lower than the same time last year (66%).

Paris rapeseed and Winnipeg canola futures prices (Nov-26) increased by 2.7% and 5.1%, respectively, last week. The Winnipeg canola futures market was supported by higher-than-normal temperatures in the Canadian prairies.

Grain trade association Coceral forecast 2026 rapeseed production in the EU-27 at 20.16 Mt, down from 20.47 Mt in June.

The forecast for sunflower seed production also decreased, from 9.99 Mt to 9.40 Mt. The heatwave in Europe could further affect the sunflower crop.

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

UK delivered rapeseed prices

Rapeseed to be delivered to Erith (Hvst-26) was reported at £444.00/t in Friday's survey, up £6.00/t from the previous week.

The price for November delivery increased by £8.50/t, to £457.50/t. For February 2027 delivery, the price was £461.00/t, up £8.50/t on the week.

These values are based on a survey conducted mid-to-late Friday morning and may not fully capture movements in Paris futures by the close of trading.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

Extra information

This Thursday (16 July), HMRC releases the UK trade data for May.

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