Sheepmeat market outlook spring 2025

Two years of heavy flock liquidation, combined with tough seasonal conditions across major lamb producing areas in southern Australia, has contributed to a marked shortage of lambs this past quarter that looks set to extend well into the back end of the year.

Lower ewe joinings, lower lambing and marketing percentages (particularly from later autumn drop) combined with limited available pasture has meant that the lower number of lambs available have been slower to market and are at lighter weights than normal. The season is running around 6 to 8 weeks behind normal. This has seen lamb prices trade well above expectations through the winter quarter, with the peak supply of new seasons lambs now expected in the October/November period.

Our forecasts have underestimated price levels through the quarter, particularly in September, when we were expecting a flush of new season supplies to help cool prices. The shortage in lamb supply has been more pronounced than expected and then lateness of the season has also been unexpected.