Water + Weather for January 2026

Transcript

Dr. Mark Wentzel - Hydrologist, Texas Water Development Board

Hi everyone, and welcome to the Texas Water Development Board's latest Water and Weather report. I'm Dr. Mark Wentzel, a hydrologist in the Surface Water Division here at the agency. And today, we'll be taking a look at conditions for our state at the end of January. Let's take a look at some of the big water and weather headlines. Statewide, January was drier and warmer than normal. Near the end of January, 67 percent of the state was in drought, up 13 percentage points since late December. Storage in our water supply reservoirs was 73 percent of capacity, down half a percentage point from the end of December, and more than eight percentage points below normal for this time of year. Unfortunately, drought conditions are expected to continue to expand across the state through the end of April.

Let's take a closer look at temperature and precipitation. From a statewide perspective, January was warmer than normal. But for the first time in five months, significant parts of the state had below-normal temperatures-the greens and blues on the map to the left. Overall, January's temperature was much closer to normal than previous months. We ended 2025 with the hottest September through December for Texas in data going back to 1895. Like the previous four months, January precipitation was below normal. Only West Texas and scattered patches of the state received near- to above-normal precipitation-the yellow, green, and blue areas on the map to the right. But again, January was an improvement from previous conditions. December 2025 was the driest December since 1950.

The small improvements in temperature and precipitation we saw in January weren't enough to end drought expansion in our state. During January, drought expanded 13 percentage points and covered two-thirds of the state by the end of the month-the tan, orange, red, and maroon areas on this map. About a quarter of the state is classified as abnormally dry, shown in yellow. Without rain in the next few weeks, these areas are also likely to transition to drought.

Statewide, surface water supplies continued to decline in January. In this chart, the dark line shows storage this year compared to minimum, maximum, and median values for the day of the year from data going back to 1990. Also displayed are lighter lines that show how we did in 2025 and 2024, and a red line that shows how we did in 2011. Fall, winter, and spring are the times of year we expect surface water supplies to recover from steep declines in the summer. From the end of September to the end of January, supplies typically increase two percentage points. This fall and winter, we've seen a decrease of two-and-a-half percentage points over that time. At the end of January, statewide supplies are at 73 percent of capacity, more than eight percentage points below normal for this time of year. Conditions do vary across the state. Most reservoirs in North Texas are near or above normal. Many reservoirs in South Texas are significantly below normal. That concludes our report. Until next time, I hope you all stay healthy and safe.