By Eric Abbruzzese | 4Q 2024 | IN-7660

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Google has officially unveiled Android XR, the Operating System (OS) and developer ecosystem aiming to enable a significant piece of the Extended Reality (XR) market going forward. The announcement was not a surprise, as public partnerships and rumored activity clearly pointed to a large-scale effort from the company in the XR space to be seen at some point, though it came later than some had expected. Google confirmed Android XR has been in the works quietly for years.

There are a few key elements to highlight:

• Google, Qualcomm, and Samsung are primary partners. Samsung will provide the first official Android XR device, a passthrough Virtual Reality (VR) headset similar to Vision Pro, in early 2025. Later hardware will come from Samsung and other partners. Google will test Augmented Reality (AR) smart glasses in 2025 as well.
• Android XR was developed and optimized with Qualcomm's Snapdragon chipsets in mind.
• Android XR promises to support the full XR spectrum. Google defined this as video see-through, optical see-through, AR glasses, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) glasses. While names and definitions may differ from company to company, most would agree this is the full gamut of expected XR devices going forward.
• AI is a huge focus for the platform. Gemini is integrated deeply through the OS, with some carryover features from other platforms like Circle to Search being supported. Multi-modal AI is a key marketing point, now leveraging XR-specific data for AI interaction and usage, similar to Meta's AI updates shown at Meta Connect.

The developer-first approach is not a surprising one, but it is interesting. On paper, this is a smart move, though it feels like a missed opportunity. In a year mostly of status quo and quiet in XR, there was potential to make a huge announcement and wake up the market. Instead, Google has chosen a quiet rollout, focused first on developers and without a hero product (through Samsung) hitting the market until 2025. The relative focus and calm of this kind of rollout should help ensure some developer buy-in, with the developer ecosystem ideally finding Android XR mature and capable, rather than rushed and confused.

Given Android XR's scope covering the full spectrum of XR-no display AI glasses through to full immersive VR-there needs to be a full selection of hardware across that spectrum sooner than later. This means that the platform will need to support not only a broad range of hardware, but also the potential use cases on those hardware platforms: development for a VR video game needs much different tools and capabilities than building an AI-powered non-visual app for AI smart glasses. While this broad approach is more difficult and resource intensive to roll out and support over time, it is truly the only option for a company at Google's scale and ambitions as a foundational OS and development partner.

Prioritizing developers early brings a few potential benefits. It avoids an all-too-common cycle of overpromising and underdelivering, whether that is down to hardware immaturity, lack of valuable content, or both. It also fosters a preliminary creation and learning phase for the platform, which should lead to devices through 2025 and beyond, launching into a more content-rich and varied ecosystem. While that doesn't immediately guarantee success-Apple had a similar cadence with Vision Pro-it is better than the alternative of a large-scale, but weak, launch.

With an official ecosystem from Google, Android XR promises to address a significant portion of the total XR market. Similar to the mobile device space, XR has become a market between Apple and Google. Android XR has been "the missing piece" in the XR space for the better part of 2 years, with Apple and Vision Pro's announcement cementing the company's presence earlier in XR. The non-Apple side of the market had struggled to gain traction without a clear ecosystem leader-Meta did well under the circumstances, but there was basically no competition at scale in 2024. An Android XR confirmation complete with a handful of devices from major Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), with immediate or near launch dates, would have been well received; of course, the dynamics and reasoning behind Google's subdued rollout aren't fully known, but it's likely that elements did not align early enough to facilitate that kind of rollout. Therefore, the true impact of Android XR's launch will not be known until 2025, even beyond when Samsung's Project Moohan hits the market.

Meta is an interesting third party in this dynamic, perhaps similar to the early days of Samsung in smartphones with its own Tizen OS. Meta is already a major hardware OEM with the Quest lineup for VR and Ray-Ban glasses in AI smart glasses, with true AR glasses in the pipeline as well. Combined with HorizonOS, Meta is uniquely positioned to compete with Apple and Google, along with partnering where appropriate. More users are a boon for all companies involved, so expect Meta and Google at least to play nice to help grow the market-Apple will likely take a more closed-off approach, as is the company's tradition.

Either way, Android XR and VisionOS promise to be the de facto OS and development ecosystems for XR going forward. Considering the existing XR market is predominantly Android-based already, Android should be able to hit the ground running with developer support, content creation, and OEM buy-in. Success, of course, is not guaranteed, but the prior years of fragmentation starting to amalgamate under Android XR ends up being a boon for the company.

If expectations are met, 2025 may finally be the mythical inflection point talked about in XR for years. As usual, many factors need to come together to make that happen, but there is potential supporting this in a way not really seen in the space before. There will be two tech giants with official end-to-end XR solutions, both with a seemingly strong belief in the capability of their own platforms and the market as a whole. AI as a killer user case is an obvious path forward, but one that will take some convincing of value to potential customers over time. This promises some true, genuine competition across XR device types, at both the individual hardware level and broad ecosystem level-this also has not been true in the past. Google's view on XR is that the combination of hardware, software, and valuable use cases has not been strong enough in the past for XR to succeed, and that has changed with tech advancements and AI. Today, that statement is nothing more than marketing, but the pieces are at least in place for it to become reality.