USITC Releases Second Report on the Economic Impact and Operation of the USMCA Automotive Rules of Origin

The U.S. International Trade Commission (Commission or USITC) today released its second report on the economic impact on the United States of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) automotive rules of origin (ROOs), their operation and effects on the U.S. economy and U.S. competitiveness, and whether the rules remain relevant in light of technological changes in the United States.

The report, USMCA Automotive Rules of Origin: Economic Impact and Operation, 2025 Report, is required by section 202A(g)(2) of the USMCA Implementation Act (the Act) (19 U.S.C. § 4532(g)(2)). The Act requires the USITC, an independent, nonpartisan, factfinding federal agency, to submit five biennial reports to the President, the House Committee on Ways and Means, and the Senate Committee on Finance. The next three reports are due in 2027, 2029, and 2031. The first report was released in 2023.

The report's Executive Summary contains detailed highlights of the Commission's findings. Select findings are outlined below.

• The Commission's economic modeling analysis indicated that the ROOs had concentrated effects on the U.S. automotive industry, and a negligible impact on the overall U.S. economy.
  • The model estimated that the ROOs increased employment, production, revenue, capital expenditures, and profits for U.S. producers of parts and materials.
  • The model estimated that the ROOs slightly decreased employment, production, revenue, capital expenditures, inventories, and profits for U.S. producers of light vehicles.
  • The model estimated that the ROOs reduced U.S. imports of light vehicles from Canada and Mexico, and increased imports from non-USMCA countries. In addition, the model indicated that the ROOs slightly increased the average price of light vehicles in the U.S. market.
• Three competitiveness factors for the automotive industry are the most likely to be affected by the ROOs: cost, investment, and product differentiation.
  • The Commission survey found that most sourcing changes associated with meeting the ROOs resulted in an increase in production cost; however, some resulted in a decrease or no change to cost.
  • Total investment in U.S. automotive manufacturing increased from $27.9 billion in 2019 to $87.8 billion in 2023, before declining to $34.1 billion in 2024. This change in investment is only partially attributable to the ROOs, though investments in parts manufacturing specifically are more likely to be ROOs-related.
• Since the USMCA took effect on July 1, 2020, the U.S. market share for vehicle sales and parts consumption in the United States remained relatively unchanged. However, other factors show signs of changes in competitiveness; U.S. motor vehicle production has increased since 2020, but still falls short of 2019 levels. Conversely, U.S. parts production also increased, especially for certain core parts, and exceeds 2019 levels. In both cases, these changes are at least partially attributable to the ROOs, according to Commission modeling.
• There were mixed signs of changes in U.S. competitiveness in other USMCA countries since the USMCA entered into force. There is little change in U.S. vehicle market share in Canada and Mexico. Meanwhile, the import share of U.S. parts has increased in Canada but decreased in Mexico. In non-USMCA markets, the U.S. share of light vehicle exported to those markets remained relatively unchanged from 2019 to 2024.
• Other individual factors­­-the Inflation Reduction Act, labor strikes, macroeconomic conditions, and more-had a greater impact on the U.S. automotive industry. Nonetheless, no single factor was more impactful than the ROOs.

This report also identified several technological changes in the United States that have created a divergence related to the tariff classification or tariff treatment of similar goods in the USMCA automotive ROOs. Technological changes covered in the Commission's 2023 report that continue to create divergences include new production processes related to aluminum vehicle bodies and increased production of electric pickup trucks.

In addition to these technologies, this report identifies components and processes related to the production of electric vehicles, such as e-axles and new battery chemistries, that create more tariff classification or tariff treatment divergences.

USMCA Automotive Rules of Origin: Economic Impact and Operation, 2025 Report (Investigation No. 332-600, USITC Publication 5642, July 2025) is available on the USITC website. Supplementing the second release of the report is an online dashboard that presents U.S. automotive trade data in an interactive format, and is available on the Commission's website.

About factfinding investigations: USITC general factfinding investigations, such as this one, cover matters related to tariffs, trade, and competitiveness and are generally conducted under section 332(g) of the Tariff Act of 1930 at the request of the U.S. Trade Representative, the House Committee on Ways and Means, or the Senate Committee on Finance. The resulting reports convey the Commission's objective findings and independent analyses on the subjects investigated. The Commission makes no recommendations on policy or other matters in its general factfinding reports. Upon completion of each investigation, the USITC submits its findings and analyses to the requester. General factfinding investigation reports are subsequently released to the public unless they are classified by the requester for national security reasons.