Import Cargo Expected to Set New Record Ahead of Potential August Tariffs

WASHINGTON - Import volume at the nation's major container ports is forecast to hit a new all-time record this month, driven by retailers stocking up ahead of expected tariff increases, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

"This year's early peak season is expected to continue through July as retailers and other importers prepare for potentially higher tariffs beginning in August and other trade uncertainties," NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said, noting continued supply chain impacts from the conflict in Iran. "The busy back-to-school selling season has already started, and the winter holidays won't be far behind, so retailers have been working to get products into the U.S. and ready to go before new tariffs can potentially drive prices higher. Despite ongoing economic headwinds, consumers are continuing to spend, but affordability is a key factor affecting their spending habits."

Temporary 10% Section 122 global tariffs that took effect in February are set to expire July 24, but a new round of tariffs regarding forced labor are expected to be imposed by the Trump administration as early as August.

"Import volumes have risen sharply, with strong growth likely continuing into July," Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. "Much of this increase reflects frontloading ahead of expected tariff increases."

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.24 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units - one 20-foot container or its equivalent - in May, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 14.9% from a year earlier, when imports were down sharply because of last year's "Liberation Day" tariffs, and up 10.1% from April.

Ports have not yet reported June numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.33 million TEU, up 18.7% year over year. That would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.77 million TEU, up 2% from the same period in 2025.

July is forecast at 2.47 million TEU, which would be up 3.3% from last year and would top the previous monthly record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022 as the economy bounced back from the pandemic. Imports are expected to drop to 2.22 million TEU in August, down 4.5% year over year. September is forecast at 1.99 million TEU, down 5.7% year over year; October also at 1.99 million TEU, down 3.8%, and November at 1.92 million TEU, down 5.2%.

The May through July numbers are expected to be the highest of the year. The peak shipping season, which historically centered around October, has moved up in recent years amid reasons ranging from port labor disputes to expected tariff increases.

Imports totaled 25.4 million TEU in 2025, down 0.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF analyzes economic conditions affecting the industry through reports such as Global Port Tracker.

About NRF
The National Retail Federation passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail succeed. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation's largest private-sector employer, contributing $5.3 trillion to annual GDP and supporting more than one in four U.S. jobs - 55 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies. nrf.com

About Hackett Associates
Hackett Associates provides expert consulting, research and advisory services to the international maritime industry, government agencies and international institutions. www.hackettassociates.com