Water + Weather for May 2026

Transcript

Dr. Mark Wentzel - Hydrologist, Texas Water Development Board

Hi everyone, and welcome to the Texas Water Development Board's latest Water and Weather report. I'm Dr. Mark Wentzel, a hydrologist in the Surface Water Division here at the agency. And today, we'll be taking a look at conditions for our state at the end of May.

Let's take a look at some of the big water and weather headlines. Statewide, May was wetter than normal, with near normal temperature; the second consecutive month that conditions have been wetter than normal. Near the end of May, 57 percent of the state was in drought, down 18 percentage points since late April and down 32 percentage points since the end of March. Storage in our water supply reservoirs ended May at 76.1 percent of capacity-up nearly one and a half percentage points from the end of April, but still eight percentage points below normal for this time of year.

Across Texas, drought conditions are expected to continue to improve and even contract a little through the end of August. Let's take a closer look at temperature and precipitation. On these maps, we're looking at both parameters relative to 21st century averages for May. From a water supply perspective, reds, oranges, and yellows mean trouble on both maps. They show areas with above-average temperature on the left and below-average precipitation on the right. Statewide, May was wetter than normal and near normal for temperature-conditions we haven't seen since July of last year. April 26 was wetter and warmer than normal. Prior to that, eight consecutive months from August 2025 through March 2026 were drier and warmer than normal.

May temperature and precipitation conditions were favorable for drought improvement. During May, drought contracted 18 percentage points and covered 57 percent of the state at the end of the month-the tan, orange, red, and maroon areas on this map. Twenty-two percent of the state was classified as abnormally dry, shown in yellow. Depending on temperature and precipitation conditions over the next few weeks, these areas are the most likely to either return to normal moisture levels, shown in white, or slip back into drought, the tan and darker colors.

Statewide, surface water supplies increased almost one and a half percentage points in May. In this chart, the dark line shows storage this year compared to minimum, maximum, and median values for the day of the year from data going back to 1990. Also displayed are the lighter lines that show how we did in 2025 and 2024, and a red line that shows how we did in 2011. May's increase was the largest monthly increase since July 2025, but still leaves us eight percentage points below normal for this time of year.

What can we expect heading into summer? Although the pace of drought contraction is expected to slow, the National Weather Service is predicting improvements across the state through the end of August. And looking farther out into the following winter, there's reason for even more optimism. El Niño conditions-warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern Equatorial Pacific-are expected to develop over the summer and persist into 2027. Those conditions typically bring Texas falls and winters that are cooler and wetter than normal. That would be favorable for even more drought improvement and contraction. That concludes our report. Until next time, I hope you all stay healthy and safe.