Virginia is about to take America’s political pulse

By Tiff Murray-Robertson
L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs

With just weeks until Virginians elect their next governor, the 2025 Wilder Symposium focused on its central question: What does democracy look like in a state that so often tells the nation where it is headed?

For 90 minutes on Sept. 25 inside Virginia Commonwealth University's W.E. Singleton Center, panelists traced the election's paradoxes, voters' anxieties and the realities that tie Virginia to the rest of the country. Bob Holsworth, Ph.D., a leading voice on Virginia politics and the founding director of VCU's L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs, guided the conversation, and the evening carried the weight of history.

Virginia is poised to elect its first female governor, either Democrat Abigail Spanberger or Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. Nearly half of the electorate identifies as independent. Cost of living ranks as voters' top concern. And Virginia draws outsized attention because of its timing: The commonwealth and New Jersey are the only two states that hold gubernatorial elections in off-cycle years, which offers a rare glimpse into the national mood between presidential and midterm contests.

Wilder, the symposium's convener and the nation's first elected Black governor, as well as a distinguished professor at his namesake school, reminded the audience what is at stake in the November election.

"America is still in search of itself - searching to find out that promise, the fulfillment of that promise, the ability to say we don't have it all right, but let's correct what we can that is wrong," he said.

His words set the tone: Democracy is not a finished product but a continual act of correction.

As Wilder spotlighted the moral urgency, Robyn McDougle, Ph.D., associate dean for research and outreach at the Wilder School and director of its Commonwealth Poll, assessed the numbers. She outlined what the data shows about Virginians this year: a restless, skeptical electorate increasingly unwilling to align neatly with either party.

"Independents are a growing body. They are individuals who are not identifying by party but instead are making decisions by issue. … Almost half of the population is independent and undecided," she said - a figure of significance in a state where a 9-point lead, Spanberger's current margin in the governor's race, may still be fragile.

McDougle detailed the issues voters cited in the Wilder School's most recent Commonwealth Poll - as well as an overarching concern.

"Cost of living is the No. 1 reason Virginians are showing up to vote in this gubernatorial election. … The second issue is women's reproductive rights, and the third is immigration," she said. But beneath those concerns runs a deeper fracture: trust.

"Eighty-nine percent of respondents said they do not think that our government spends their money responsibly," McDougle noted. "That's an erosion of trust in our structure and our government systems."

Where McDougle saw numbers, Niraj Verma, Ph.D., former dean of the Wilder School, saw caution. He urged against reading polling or even campaign finance as destiny.

"The real test is going to be: How many people can each candidate touch? How many doors do you knock? How hard do you work? Where is your team going?" he said. "There is no constituency that can be taken for granted, whether it's African Americans, Asian Americans, white men, white women, gay, lesbian, whatever."

Verma also warned of the distortions of modern campaigns.

"There has been a 28-fold increase in super PAC funding between 2010 and 2024. … Dark money now stands at $1 billion," he said. "If money is not a clear bellwether and polling is questionable, then how do we go about this?"

His answer, like Wilder's, was in the human act of campaigning - face-to-face encounters that build local trust.

Susan Gooden, Ph.D., dean of the Wilder School, offered a different perspective for consideration of the election: paradoxes. She pointed out the silence around what might otherwise be a defining moment.

"We know Virginia is going to elect our first female governor. That's a historic first," she said. "But the paradox is that for all the history, there is very little discussion about it."

That also applies to the diversity of the ballot.

"Where is the talk of that?" Gooden asked. "For all the debate about DEI, we have very little conversation about the diversity that has brought these candidates to the fore."

She also cited an economic paradox - Virginia's high layoffs but low unemployment rate - as well as the political paradox around President Donald Trump.

"Virginians are talking about Trump … but Trump is not talking about Virginia," Gooden said. "There's been no campaign rally here, no endorsement of Winsome Sears."

While Wilder, McDougle, Verma and Gooden spotlighted pieces of the electoral puzzle, Holsworth tied them together. He reminded the audience that state elections in Virginia rarely stay contained.

"If Abigail Spanberger loses, it's a catastrophe for the Democrats nationally," he said. "If she wins and the Democrats pick up seats in the House of Delegates, that will send shudders through Republicans in Congress who have to run in purple districts in 2026."

With just weeks until Virginians elect their new governor, the symposium focused on a central question: What does democracy look like in a state that so often tells the nation where it is headed? (VCU Wilder School)

Holsworth cast Virginia as a first draft of the midterms. He pointed to recent races: Ralph Northam's 2017 gubernatorial victory in the shadow of Trump, Glenn Youngkin's 2021 win as President Joe Biden's numbers faltered, and how Terry McAuliffe's loss to Youngkin foreshadowed national Democratic struggles.

"The first election of 2026 is happening in Virginia," Holsworth said, underscoring that what looks like a state contest doubles as a test case for both parties' national strategies.

Questions from the audience

The symposium discussion did not end with the panelists. Audience members pushed the conversation further, asking about feminism, executive power, campaign finance and Trump's shadow.

• One question was whether feminism has shaped the governor's race. Gooden's response was direct: "We've got a diverse group of candidates, but we don't have what I would say is identity politics coming alongside that. Issues of identity have been way muted."
• Another question was whether Republicans risk ignoring that Democrats will one day inherit the same executive powers they now embrace. Verma answered bluntly: "Future value is always discounted when you consider it in the present, and people forget that the future catches up with them."
• For an audience question about money in politics, Wilder did not hesitate.

"I don't know that we can do anything unless the Supreme Court changes," he said. "Money should not be the limit as to what a person can do, but when election time comes, that's where the money is sometimes wasted."

• And the Trump factor hovered. Would an endorsement of Earle-Sears change the race?

McDougle doubted it. "Some could argue that could help turn out that base … but I don't think it's going to be enough to tighten that margin enough to have an impact."