Weather whiplash raises financial risk for Ohio farmers

COLUMBUS, Ohio - Ohio farmers are increasingly being forced to manage two opposing threats in the same growing season: too much water and not enough.

In 2025, the state experienced its fifth-wettest April-to-July period on record, followed just months later by its driest August since recordkeeping began in 1895. Temperatures shifted sharply as well, from a colder-than-average May to record-warm overnight lows in early summer. This "weather whiplash" directly affects crop development, grain fill and yield potential.

To help producers reduce risk and protect profitability, researchers and Ohio State University Extension specialists with The Ohio State University College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences (CFAES) are expanding statewide weather monitoring, advancing drainage and soil health research, and delivering science-based decision tools tailored to local conditions across Ohio's 88 counties.

"Weather whiplash refers to the extreme oscillation in conditions in either a temperature sense or precipitation sense," said Aaron Wilson, assistant professor with CFAES, agricultural weather and climate field specialist with OSU Extension, and state climatologist with the university's State Climate Office of Ohio. "We had both types of examples in 2025."

Extremes within a single season

May 2025 was 2 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit below normal across Ohio. That cooler spring was followed by an exceptionally warm June and July, particularly overnight.

"Most counties in Ohio experienced their record warmest-average overnight low for those two months," Wilson said.

Those temperature shifts accelerated crop development. Growing degree days, a measure of heat accumulation that drives plant growth, moved from well below normal at the end of May to well above normal by late August. The rankings span the full climate record from 1895 to 2025.

Precipitation followed a similar pattern. The April-to-July period ranked as the fifth-wettest on record statewide. Just months later, Ohio recorded its driest August on record.

"The rapid oscillations in precipitation extremes certainly match the trends we've seen, and they are impactful for agriculture," Wilson said. "Since timing of production is so vital, a rapid drying period or deluge during important periods - for example, planting, pollination and harvest - can make or break a season."

Late-season drying is especially concerning for corn and soybean producers because August moisture is critical for grain fill. Even short-term stress during that window can reduce yield potential.

Flash droughts, or rapid onset dry conditions, are becoming more common, even in years that rank among Ohio's wettest.

"Drought has always been a part of the natural cycle of hydrology in Ohio," Wilson said. While prolonged, multiyear droughts were more common in the 1930s, 1950s and 1960s, "shorter-term 'flash-drought' conditions have become more common," he said.

He pointed to Pickaway County as one example. In 2024, the county experienced D4 exceptional drought, the most intense drought of four categories assigned by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Between April and July 2025, more than 30 inches of rain fell there.

For farmers, that volatility complicates decisions about planting, replanting and harvest timing.

"The message has been consistent: Be ready to roll in the spring when the time is right," Wilson said.

Modern equipment allows more acres to be planted in shorter windows. But when soil conditions swing from saturated to powder dry in a matter of weeks, decisions about equipment, herbicide performance and input timing become more complex and more costly if misjudged.

As weather variability intensifies, adaptation must be localized and grounded in research, Wilson said.

CFAES scientists are examining drainage management, soil health strategies and precision agriculture approaches that offer what Wilson described as "win-win opportunities." These practices can improve resilience while maintaining profitability.

"The more we can connect these strategies to the benefits farmers may receive is crucial for their adoption," he said.

The college is also expanding the Ohio Mesonet, a statewide network of weather stations that supports agricultural models and pesticide alerts. By strengthening access to localized climate data and decision tools, CFAES and OSU Extension are helping farmers respond more effectively to fast-changing conditions.

A critical year ahead

Soil moisture remains a concern heading into the 2026 growing season.

"It has been an abysmal soil moisture recharge season in Ohio," Wilson said.

Although snowfall has been above average in many areas, it has not delivered enough moisture to offset deficits that have accumulated over the past six to 12 months. Much of northwest Ohio remains 6 to 12 inches below normal over the past six months, contributing to D3 extreme drought conditions.

Forecasts indicate a higher probability of above-normal precipitation in late winter and early spring. But recovery depends on how that precipitation arrives.

"We need time for the water to soak deeper into the soil layer and not come down so heavy that it remains at the surface or washes off into the streams," Wilson said.

His message for Ohio producers over the next five to 10 years is direct.

"Water management is key. Be prepared to deal with too much and too little water in the same season," he said.