Should You Buy And Hold Autodesk Stock

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Investors watching Autodesk (ADSK) over the past year have seen the stock lose 19.1%, while the S&P 500 returned 17.1%. Shares currently trade at 31.4 times earnings. This marks a drop from the average of 52.0 recorded across the company's last 12 fiscal quarter-end readings, meaning buyers today pay far less for each dollar of profit than previous holders did. What would holding Autodesk for three years from here return?

What Three Years Of Holding Autodesk Could Return

Under this scenario, holding Autodesk for three years would return about 44.5%, or roughly 13.1% a year. Autodesk pays no dividend, so there is none to add. The model assumes revenue from the twelve months to fiscal Q2 2027 grows at 85% of Autodesk's latest yearly pace, while holding the P/E at today's level. The table below sets the current business beside its projected state in three years.

Selling more software generates the entire projected gain. Higher revenue actually accounts for more than the total upside, because the margin assumed for year three sits slightly below today's level and subtracts a portion of the gain. Since the P/E remains flat in this scenario, multiple expansion contributes nothing to the gain.

When Autodesk is a large share of what you own, your plan depends on the business delivering more. See how to protect a concentrated position.

Where Autodesk's Faster Sales Are Coming From

Autodesk has posted higher twelve-month revenue growth each year. The pace increased from 11.4% in the period ending fiscal Q2 2025 to 13.8% a year later. By the twelve months to fiscal Q2 2027, growth reached 17.9%.

Software for architects, engineers and builders produces the fastest growth. Autodesk's largest segment, Architecture, Engineering, Construction and Operations, expanded 22.0% to $3.58 billion in fiscal 2026. On the fiscal Q2 2027 call, management said the construction business is growing at more than 20%.

Part of the fiscal 2027 pace will not repeat. Management said a new transaction model added roughly 2 percentage points to revenue growth in fiscal Q2 2027, and some of its benefit to fiscal 2027 will not recur in fiscal 2028. Fiscal 2027 guidance now also includes MaintainX, a business Autodesk acquired in August. Management's revenue guide for that year implies 15.5% growth. That figure covers just one year, and it includes both the benefit that will not recur and MaintainX. The scenario needs 15.2% growth in each of the three years.

What Would Autodesk's Upside Be In Other Scenarios?

The table below outlines the stock's upside when a single assumption changes and the other two match the scenario. It also includes a row running the scenario out for five years instead of three.

Autodesk starts from a margin above its historical baseline. The company posted a 21.1% net margin in the twelve months to fiscal Q2 2027, compared to an average of 17.1% for the twelve-month periods ended July 2023 through April 2026. To project year three, the scenario blends the two figures, assigning a 70% weight to today's level and a 30% weight to the historical average.

Owning the shares for three years would return nothing if revenue growth slowed to 1.9% a year, compared to the 17.9% pace the company delivered in the twelve months to fiscal Q2 2027. Holding the stock would also return nothing if the net margin in year three fell to 13.8%, down from 21.1% today. The same applies to a P/E contraction to 21.7 in year three, against 31.4 today. In each case, the other two assumptions are as in the scenario.

Autodesk's twelve-month revenue growth is the measure to watch, and its fiscal Q3 2027 report is expected on or around November 23, 2026.

Is Too Much Of Your Wealth Riding On One Stock?

Any gain in Autodesk from here depends on the business delivering more. When one position grows into a large part of your wealth, a sharp fall can hurt your whole plan, and selling to spread the money out can bring a large tax bill. Our partner advisory firm offers a free strategy review of ways to protect a concentrated position and unwind it with less tax.

Request A Free Strategy Review

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