EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will decrease slightly in 2026

In-brief analysis

• In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. crude oil production will average 13.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, about 100,000 b/d less than in 2025.
• This forecast decline in production follows four years of rising crude oil output.
• Production increased by 0.3 million b/d in 2024 and by 0.4 million b/d in 2025, mostly because of increased output in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico.
• In 2026, we forecast modest production increases in Alaska, the Federal Gulf of America, and the Permian will be offset by declines in other parts of the United States.
• We forecast that the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price will average $65 per barrel (b) in 2025 and $51/b in 2026, both lower than the 2024 average of $77/b.

Principal contributor: EIA staff

Tags: STEO (Short-Term Energy Outlook), forecasts/projections, crude oil, production/supply