China Export Tax Rebate Changes 2026: Complete Supply Chain Planning Guide for Importers and Exporters

As global supply chains continue to evolve amid trade policy shifts, China's upcoming adjustments to export tax rebates represent a critical development for businesses sourcing or exporting from Asia. Effective April 1, 2026, China will eliminate value-added tax (VAT) export rebates for photovoltaic (PV) products, including solar cells, modules, inverters, and related components. This follows a prior reduction from 13% to 9% in December 2024. For battery products, such as lithium-ion batteries and primary cells, rebates will drop from 9% to 6% between April 1 and December 31, 2026, before being fully phased out on January 1, 2027. Additional products like polyvinyl chloride (PVC), phosphorus chemicals, certain inputs for polyether production, and others are also impacted.

Importantly, ceramics, glass (including industrial and photovoltaic glass), and batteries will also be affected. These categories could impact a broader range of companies beyond pure renewables, including those in construction, automotive, electronics, and energy storage sectors that rely on these materials or components.

These changes, announced by China's Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration on January 9, 2026, aim to curb overcapacity, promote high-quality development, and reduce trade frictions by addressing concerns over subsidized exports and price dumping. For importers and exporters, this could lead to higher costs, accelerated shipments in Q1 2026, and potential disruptions in freight and logistics. In this guide, SEKO Logistics provides key timelines, impact analyses, and actionable strategies to help you navigate these shifts and maintain supply chain resilience.

Key Dates and the 2026 Timeline at a Glance

The policy adjustments create a multi-phase disruption window, with immediate effects on export pricing and shipment volumes. Here's a breakdown:

• Pre-Change Rush (January-March 2026): Expect a surge in exports as manufacturers and buyers accelerate orders to capture remaining rebates. This could mirror "panic buying" seen in the PV sector, driving up module prices by 5-10% short-term and straining capacity.

• Implementation Phase (April 1-December 31, 2026): Full rebate cancellation for PV products; battery rebates reduced to 6%. Export costs rise by up to 9% for affected goods, potentially passed on to buyers.

• Full Phase-Out (January 1, 2027 onward): Battery rebates eliminated entirely, leading to sustained cost increases and possible market consolidation.

• Overall Disruption Window: 4-6 months of volatility, from late Q1 2026 into mid-year, with lingering effects on pricing and trade flows.

The applicable rebate rate is determined by the export date on customs declarations, so precise timing is essential.

The changes target specific HS codes, focusing on clean energy, chemicals, and related materials. Below is a summary table of major impacted categories: