Prospects for U.S. Agricultural Exports to New Zealand

Executive Summary

The United States continues to play an important role in New Zealand's agricultural import market. U.S. agricultural exports to New Zealand increased from $496 million in 2024 to $620 million in 2025. Although New Zealand is a major agricultural producer, the United States stands out as a key supplier of dairy products, pork, fresh fruit, and pet food. The United States ranks among the top three suppliers in each of these categories.

Macroeconomic Prospective: Signs of Recovery

New Zealand's economy faced challenges in 2024 as high interest rates depressed consumer spending. Currently, the outlook is improving with official rates dropping from 5.5 percent in 2024 to 2.5 percent in 2025. According to the International Monetary Fund, real gross domestic product growth was 1.1 percent in 2025 and is set to strengthen further to around 2.2 percent in 2026.¹ Lower interest rates, higher consumer confidence, and steady demand for New Zealand's exports are helping to improve the economy. While challenges like global uncertainties remain, New Zealand's resilient and flexible economy points to reliable growth in the years ahead.

Demographics

New Zealand has a population of 5.3 million.² Population growth is modest, at roughly 0.7 percent per year, and comes mostly from immigration. The population is gradually aging, with a median age of 38, and is becoming more diverse, particularly through increases in Asian and Pacific communities.³ Residents enjoy high living standards and place high importance on health and wellness when making food purchases.⁴ Busy households and younger professionals have shown interest in convenient, nutritious, and environmentally responsible food products.

Market Trends

New Zealand consumers are prioritizing health benefits and sustainability in their food choices. Consumers have a strong demand for plant-based options, dairy alternatives, ethnic foods, and allergy-friendly products like gluten-free items.⁵ Fresh produce is increasingly valued for its health advantages, especially by the aging population. Convenience is also an important attribute, reflected in the growth in easy-to-prepare and indulgent items like premium ice cream and confectionery. Shopping is dominated by supermarkets, which hold 66 percent of the retail market share. According to USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service in Wellington, major chains such as Foodstuffs and Woolworths control more than 80 percent of grocery revenues. Online channels are expanding rapidly, driven by retailers' digital investments and a warehousing boom to support e-commerce growth. Consumers also favor products with natural ingredients and recyclable packaging.

Prospects for U.S. Exports to New Zealand

U.S. agricultural exports to New Zealand have shown steady growth. This growth should continue as consumers seek high-quality, innovative foods. In 2025, opportunities are strong in categories like dairy, fresh fruit, and prepared foods.

Pork and Pork Products

U.S. pork exports to New Zealand totaled $44.8 million in 2025, led by frozen swine at $27 million. Opportunities come from prepared and preserved pork products, cured bacon, frozen offal, and select primal-cut categories with expanding opportunities in breakfast, deli, and convenience segments. New Zealand's total pork imports totaled $207 million in 2025, and the United States ranks as the second-largest foreign supplier behind the European Union (EU).

Dairy Products

U.S. dairy exports to New Zealand reached $120 million in 2025, driven overwhelmingly by high-purity lactose, which remains the flagship product at $81 million and reflects strong demand from New Zealand's food and nutrition manufacturers. Beyond lactose, several value-added and specialty ingredients show clear growth potential: milk albumin and whey protein products expanded to $6.2 million, while natural milk products and fresh cheeses also increased, signaling opportunities in niche retail and foodservice channels. Grated cheese, whey, and lower-purity lactose continue to provide steady footholds in categories where New Zealand's domestic production does not fully meet industrial or formulation needs. In 2025, New Zealand imported more than $397.4 million in dairy products globally, with the United States as the third-largest supplier following the EU and Australia.

Fresh Fruit

U.S. fresh fruit exports to New Zealand were $41.5 million in 2025, supported by demand for counter-seasonal supply and premium varieties. Fresh grapes remain the anchor opportunity at $24.8 million, while lemons continue to offer room for expansion, alongside growing shipments of apples, peaches, cherries, and other specialty fruits. New Zealand's import market for fresh fruit reached $188 million in 2025, and the United States is the third-largest supplier behind Australia and Ecuador. With New Zealand relying heavily on imports for tropical fruit, table grapes, and select citrus during the offseason window, U.S. exporters are well-positioned to grow market share in high-value foodservice channels that prioritize quality and seasonal availability.

Prepared Foods

U.S. exports of soups and other food preparations to New Zealand were $28.5 million in 2025. New Zealand's total imports in this category exceeded $477 million, and the United States ranks as the third-largest supplier behind Singapore and Australia. As consumer demand for convenience foods increases, this category offers potential for expanding exports.

Pet Food

U.S. dog and cat food exports to New Zealand were $18 million in 2025, entirely in retail-ready products, reflecting steady demand for premium and trusted brands. New Zealand's overall pet food imports totaled $186 million, led by Australia and Thailand, with the United States ranking as the third-largest supplier. With New Zealand's pet owners increasingly seeking quality, safety, and tailored nutrition, U.S. brands are well-placed to grow their share.

Tree Nuts

U.S. tree nut exports to New Zealand totaled $16.5 million in 2025, supported by strong demand for almonds, walnuts, and in-shell pistachios-three categories that together account for the majority of U.S. shipments. New Zealand's total tree nut imports rose to $93 million, led by Vietnam and Australia, with the United States serving as the third-largest supplier. The continued strength of shelled almonds and the notable rise in shelled walnuts and in-shell pistachios point to expanding opportunities in healthy snacking, home baking, and food manufacturing.

Wine

U.S. wine and related product exports to New Zealand were $1.5 million in 2025, driven primarily by bottled wines less than 2 liters, which accounted for $1.3 million and remain the strongest avenue for growth. Smaller but notable opportunities also exist in sparkling wines and flavored vermouths, which together signal interest in niche, premium, and specialty offerings. New Zealand imported $143 million in wine in 2025, led by the EU and Australia, with the United States ranking as the third-largest supplier. With expanded marketing and increased emphasis on brand recognition, the United States has the potential to increase market share in this category.

Non-Alcoholic beverages

U.S. non-alcoholic beverage exports to New Zealand totaled $10.5 million in 2025, supported by demand for carbonated soda. Sweetened and flavored waters also retain an important foothold. New Zealand imported more than $145 million in non-alcoholic beverages in 2025, led by Australia, the EU, and the United States.

Pulses

U.S. pulse exports to New Zealand rose to $4.9 million in 2025, with the strongest opportunities concentrated in kidney beans and chickpeas, which together make up nearly 90 percent of U.S. shipments. New Zealand's import market for pulses totaled $12.7 million, led by Canada and the United States is the second-largest supplier of pulses.

Trade Policy

Tariffs in New Zealand range from 0 to 5 percent on most products.⁶ New Zealand maintains free trade agreements with a wide range of partners, including major Asian markets, but it has no bilateral free trade agreement with the United States. Instead, the two countries cooperate per the 1992 Trade and Investment Framework Agreement.⁷ Primary challenges for exporters are rigorous biosecurity requirements and import health standards administered by the Ministry for Primary Industries. New Zealand's science-based standards and active involvement in multilateral agreements help keep the market accessible. However, meeting these standards can extend timelines and increase costs.

Conclusion

New Zealand consumers continue to seek premium, convenient, and health-oriented food products, creating ongoing opportunities for U.S. exporters. The United States has established a respected presence in several important categories and earns recognition for quality and innovation. As the New Zealand economy recovers and consumer preferences shift further toward wellness and sustainability, opportunities exist in this market.

¹ Reserve Bank of New Zealand
² Statistics New Zealand, National Population Estimates, 2025
³ Statistics New Zealand, National Ethnic Projections 2023 (base)-2048
⁴ GAIN, New Zealand Retail Foods Annual, November 2025
⁵ GAIN, New Zealand Retail Foods Annual, November 2025
⁶ GAIN, New Zealand Exporter Guide Annual, June 2025
⁷ GAIN, New Zealand Exporter Guide Annual, June 2025