National Pork Board

04/23/2025 | News release | Distributed by Public on 04/23/2025 13:06

Pork Market Situation: Highlights

Profit Maximizer

Pork Market Situation: Highlights

Hog slaughter declined below 2.4 million last week as some plants were closed for Good Friday. This week slaughter is expected to be around 2.4 million again due to lower processing on Monday.

April 23, 20255 min. read

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Steiner and Company produces the Profit Maximizer report on behalf of National Pork Board based on information we believe is accurate and reliable. However neither NPB nor Steiner and Company warrants or guarantees the accuracy of or accepts any liability for the data, opinions or recommendations expressed.

Highlights

  • Hog slaughter declined below 2.4 million last week as some plants were closed for Good Friday. This week slaughter is expected to be around 2.4 million again due to lower processing on Monday.
  • The reduction in slaughter limited availability and bolstered prices across most items. Bellies saw the biggest gains at the end of the week as processors sought to line up deliveries post Easter.
  • Fresh pork prices have been lower than expected, some of this was likely due to late Easter this year. With Easter behind us and warmer weather, retail demand is expected to improve, resulting in higher prices for loins, pork butts, picnics and ribs.
  • Ham prices have been under pressure, in part due to lower sales to Mexico. Current prices are unlikely to persist as slaughter declines and exporters step in to cover needs.

Full Report

Lean Hog Futures Recovery

After plunging to $88/cwt post-tariff announcement, June lean hog futures have rebounded to pre-April 2 levels, as pork continues to go into Mexico tariff free and optimism for new trade deals.

Pork Cutout Outlook

Assuming a similar spread to last year, current futures suggest pork cutout values near $107/cwt, with retailers expected to see firmer fresh pork prices-particularly loins and butts-into June.

Key Summer Risks

Hams and bellies remain volatile; ham values could face downside risk if Mexico imposes new tariffs. Higher belly prices implied by current futures but demand outlook from foodservice is a wild card.

Analysis

Trade Concerns Summer Down… for the Moment

June lean hog futures immediately following the announcement of steep retaliatory tariffs traded as low as $88/cwt, about $18/cwt (-17%) lower than where they were back in February. Following the pause of retaliatory tariffs, limited tariffs (so far) on Mexico and Canada and potential for new trade deals in the next 90 days, lean hog futures have returned to where they were pre-April 2 announcement.

Lean Hog to Cutout Spreads

Last year, around the time the June futures contract expired, the difference between the CME index and pork cutout prices was about $9/cwt, the widest gap in three years. That happened partly because hog supplies were larger than expected.

This year, USDA's recent Hogs and Pigs report suggests supplies will be slightly lower, with a 0.2% drop in the pig crop for the Dec-Feb period (also consistent with the market hog inventories). That means the price gap may not be as wide this time. One wildcard is China. Tariffs on U.S. pork variety meats will reduce the value packers get from those products, so they may try to make up for it by putting more money on the meat.

Pork Cutout Implications

If we assume the same spread as last year, current futures suggest pork cutout prices around $107/cwt, maybe slightly under. Futures are currently pricing a notable increase in fresh pork prices, something retailers need to closely watch.

Loin prices have underperformed recently vs. 2024, though the comparison is tricky due to the timing of a very late Easter. Given high beef prices and rising chicken breast prices, it wouldn't be surprising to see the pork loin primal value in June approach, or even surpass last year's levels at over $100/cwt. Futures are already trading this possibility.

Shoulder cuts have been trending lower. Picnics were above year ago in Q1 but slowdown in exports has started to have an impact. Pork butts have yet to experience much seasonal support. By the end of last week the pork butt primal traded at $113/cwt. We think futures are currently implying a 15% or more increase into June.

If shoppers are looking for good value, pork butts could be a great deal for grocery stores to promote. The current price offers some nice opportunities for sales and features. That brings us to two big question marks for summer prices: hams and bellies.

Ham prices carry more risk if trade tensions with Mexico ramp up again. So far, things have been calm, but the situation could still shift. Duties on Mexican tomatoes are expected to go into effect July 14 and Mexican authorities have threatened to impose their own anti-dumping tariffs on US pork and chicken. Current hog futures imply ham values in the low 90s for June, about 10% higher than currently. As for bellies, futures are implying prices in the mid to high 140s, above where they traded a year ago. Foodservice demand remains critical for this item.

Price Chart

Forecasts

Steiner Consulting Group produces the National Pork Board newsletter based on information we believe is accurate and reliable. However, neither NPB nor Steiner and Company warrants or guarantees the accuracy of or accepts any liability for the data, opinions or recommendations expressed.