What Could Netflix Stock Be Worth In Three Years

Over the past twelve months, Netflix (NFLX) stock has lost 40%, trailing the 17.0% return of the S&P 500. The shares now trade at 21.6 times earnings. That multiple sits well below what investors used to pay for them. Excluding readings above 100, the company's P/E averaged 39.7 at the last twelve quarter-ends. Yet the company's sales are still growing. So if Netflix keeps selling more, what would a share you buy today be worth three years from now?

Netflix Stock Would Be Worth About $95 A Share

Under our assumptions, a Netflix share would be worth $94.87 in three years, compared with $70.30 today. That represents a gain of 35.0%. This is not a forecast. It is straightforward arithmetic based on Netflix's own revenue, margin, and P/E. The table below outlines these figures today and three years out.

This entire gain comes from Netflix selling more. Our scenario assumes revenue grows 13.6% a year, a pace slower than the 16.0% Netflix achieved in the twelve months to fiscal Q2 2026. We assume the P/E stays where it is today. That means investors gain nothing from the market paying more for each dollar of profit. We also assume a lower net margin than Netflix earns now, which takes some of the gain away.

Netflix Counts On Members, Pricing And Ads Revenue

During the fiscal Q2 2026 call, management said revenue growth for that quarter and the next comes mainly from adding members, raising prices, and increasing ads revenue. Management noted that first half price changes in markets like the US, Mexico, and Spain have gone well. Netflix also reported reaching less than 45% of the roughly 800 million households it could sell to, meaning there are still members to win.

Yet Netflix grew more slowly in its latest quarter than over the prior twelve months, posting 13.4% year over year growth in fiscal Q2 2026. Management guided 12% for fiscal Q3 2026. Netflix is expected to report that quarter on or around October 20, 2026. Both quarterly figures sit below the pace we assume. At 13.3%, the full-year guide for fiscal 2026 is also just below our assumed rate, with two quarters of that year already reported.

How Much Of Netflix's Gain Could You Lose?

The table below shows what the three-year gain would be if a single assumption changed. Among these variables, the upside is most exposed to Netflix's net margin.

Over the twelve months to fiscal Q2 2026, Netflix earned a net margin of 28.2%. That sits far above its three-year average of 20.7%. If the margin returned to that average, most of the gain would disappear.

Because revenue growth drives the upside, how far could it miss? Three years of owning the stock would return nothing if revenue grew only 2.8% a year, with the other two assumptions unchanged. That rate is 13.2 points below the pace of the last twelve months. For context, Netflix's twelve-month growth was 13.0% at the lowest of its last three yearly readings.

The case holds if Netflix keeps adding members and raising prices while maintaining most of the margin it earns today. If the margin slides back toward older levels, Netflix becomes a riskier bet. Sales growth would have to make up for a bigger loss of margin. Furthermore, revenue growth below the 12% management guided for fiscal Q3 2026 would show Netflix's sales falling further behind the pace our scenario assumes.

Does This Mean You Should Act On NFLX?

Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.

There is a smarter approach. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, beating the benchmark that combines the three major indices - the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking. If that is how you want to invest, the HQ Portfolio is the place to start.