The discipline of what-if: SETAF-AF wargames crisis scenarios

VICENZA, Italy - A plan may look great on paper until it meets reality. Anticipating that, U.S. Army Southern European Task Force, Africa (SETAF-AF) planners used innovative tools alongside traditional strategies to stress-test their response to a real-world crises Sept. 16-17 during a wargaming exercise as part of the ongoing deployment readiness exercise, Lion DRE. This exercise demonstrated how SETAF-AF remains a force multiplier for U.S. Army Europe and Africa and U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), ready to rapidly respond as a joint task force when needed.

Planners gathered at SETAF-AF headquarters to begin wargaming different courses of action for crisis response scenarios.

Wargaming is the disciplined act of picking a fight with your own plan to expose its strengths and weaknesses. Since the 19th century, it has served as a strategic tool for deliberate decision-making - now enhanced by new technologies that improve data accuracy, speed and collaboration.

Planners from multiple units and directorates crowded together over maps in a small room. Some represented friendly forces; others acted as opposition, deliberately testing assumptions. Teams divided into sub-groups to play out their options, each focused on logistics, troop movement, execution and security.

Robert Ross, a wargame facilitator and plans and policy planner in the strategy and plans directorate (G5), SETAF-AF. introduced unexpected "injects," forcing teams to react in real time.

Large maps covered the tables with cutouts representing units, terrain and critical resources. Staff moved pieces, briefed outcomes, calculated probabilities and debated potential courses of action.

"Every plan relies on a set of assumptions that are both spoken and unspoken, and those assumptions need to be challenged," Ross said.

Ross explained that the strategy was to optimize plans based on speed, flexibility and risk. Though visually similar to a game, the focus was entirely strategic. Each move required input from foreign area officers, logisticians, maneuver elements, intelligence teams and more. He said each course of action has its advantages and disadvantages to bring to the surface.

Robin Kuo, a civilian strategist and planner in the G5, SETAF-AF, used innovative technology in the planning that led up to the wargaming exercise. By incorporating Maven, an artificial intelligence tool, his team was able to better manage data and improve decision support.

"If AI wasn't there or was suddenly taken down or offline, how do we practice that?" Kuo asked. "The team focuses on creating decision-driven data, not data-driven decisions."

Kuo explained that AI helps planners search curated data, answer doctrinal questions and prototype simulations. He also explained that it can support faster, more informed decisions. Kuo said he and his team are continuing to experiment with Maven tools.

"AI doesn't replace human decision-making, it supports it, making our processes more efficient while keeping the analysis rigorous," Kuo added.

SETAF-AF's staff is diverse, consisting of federal employees, contractors and Soldiers from all components with varying experience. This created a pool of innovative thinkers for the wargaming exercise.

"Most of the civilians, whether GS or contractors, bring a depth of knowledge to support the military decision-makers," Ross added.

Kuo, who also serves as an Army Reservist, previously worked as an interactive art director, specializing in user experience design. He says this experience informed his approach to product and interface design using Maven.

"I have an understanding of how an audience interacts with interfaces so I can build things in Maven that are more user-friendly," Kuo said.

With a staff of innovative experts, SETAF-AF is prepared to tackle all what-if scenarios. By blending technical skill with operational experience, planners can test new tools and approaches without sacrificing the fundamentals of military decision-making.

This deliberate preparation ensures SETAF-AF remains a ready, rapidly deployable joint task force.

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About SETAF-AF

U.S. Army Southern European Task Force (SETAF-AF) prepares Army forces, executes crisis response, enables strategic competition and strengthens partners to achieve U.S. Army Europe and Africa and U.S. Africa Command campaign objectives.

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