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01/13/2026 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 01/13/2026 12:06

How Much More Oil from Venezuela—and How Soon

How Much More Oil from Venezuela-and How Soon?

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Analysis by Clayton Seigle

Published January 13, 2026

Venezuelan oil production could rebound under adequate political, legal, fiscal, and operating conditions.

  1. The multi-decade history of Venezuelan oil production illustrates the collapse in productive capacity from its high point around 3.4 million barrels per day in the 1970s to less than 1 million barrels per day in the 2020s; this was caused by oil sector expropriations, chronic government mismanagement and underinvestment, and crippling sanctions.

  2. In a modest growth scenario that assumes adequate political, legal, fiscal, and operating conditions, Venezuelan oil output could rebound to approximately 1.5 million barrels per day by 2028 as sanctions ease and damaged existing oil wells are refurbished.

  3. In a significant growth scenario featuring the aforementioned conditions and substantially larger capital commitments by industry partners, Venezuelan oil production could approach 3 million barrels per day by 2035, supported by new upgrader facilities and greenfield projects coming online.

CSIS Charts is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

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Senior Fellow and James R. Schlesinger Chair in Energy and Geopolitics, Energy Security and Climate Change Program
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Commentary by Clayton Seigle - January 6, 2026

CSIS - Center for Strategic and International Studies Inc. published this content on January 13, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on January 13, 2026 at 18:06 UTC. If you believe the information included in the content is inaccurate or outdated and requires editing or removal, please contact us at [email protected]