Will there be war with China

Will there be a war with China? People are asking this question as there is a high level of tension near Taiwan and in the South China (East) Sea. U.S. imperialism pushes an aggressive posture with air and naval exercises and continues to arm Taiwan, in violation of previous agreements. Such a war would be a huge disaster for the working class.

Following up on the 2011 pivot to Asia, U.S. imperialism is creating new anti-China military alliances like AUKUS (which includes Australia, the U.K. and the U.S.), and is expanding its strategic military presence in the Pacific region, such as enlarging the naval base in Guam. The U.S. insists it is guaranteeing freedom of navigation in international waters, despite there being no incident blocking access. China points out the U.S. operates many thousands of miles from its homeland, while China is defending its coastal waters. U.S. naval forces are operating in the same places Britain did during the Opium War. Territorial disputes in East Asia should be negotiated by the countries in the region. Frequent military patrols in the air and on the sea by both U.S. and Chinese forces cause concern over accidental conflict, which in the worst-case scenario could balloon into a nuclear war.

Meanwhile, big business media conglomerates prepare public opinion by beating the war drums with an anti-China campaign, replete with constant slanders and lies about the supposed Chinese aggression and threat. The corporate media, in its coverage of foreign policy issues, is largely a pro-war tool of U.S. imperialism.

China wants peace to pursue national development and promotes an inclusive vision of "win-win cooperation" and mutual benefit. Chinese policy has shifted towards emphasizing ties with the Global South in diplomacy, trade and investment, and in building new institutions such as BRICS and the Belt and Road Initiative. China, which was victimized by colonialism and war, is very aware of imperialist military power and is actively modernizing its defense forces.

The newly elected Republican Party contains a section of vehement anti-Communists, such as Trump's Secretary of State appointee Marco Rubio and the House of Representatives' "Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party." However, another business-oriented section of the party wants decent relations with China to better make profits. For example, Elon Musk, advisor to the president, has a huge investment in a Tesla plant in Shanghai. The U.S. capitalists and ruling class continue to have different opinions on U.S.-China relations. The people are for friendship and cooperation. It is difficult to predict what Trump will do.

U.S. Navy plans for war

The U.S. Navy created a stir last year when it released its 2024 "Navigation Plan for America's Warfighting Navy." The self-proclaimed "North Star" of this plan is readiness for sustained high-end joint and combined combat by 2027, explicitly preparing for the possibility of war with the People's Republic of China. Further, the U.S. Marines recently organized its first-ever littoral (i.e. near the shore) combat regiment, getting ready for a potential future war in the Pacific reminiscent of World War II.

The Pentagon published a concept on possible war against China in 2010, which it called "AirSea Battle" (later renamed JAM-GC in 2015). The 2024 plans are an updating and refinement of the original 2010 plans. Its predecessor, AirLand Battle, was a military concept for fighting a war against the Soviet Union in Europe. Rather than being based on a land war, AirSea Battle is aimed at preparing for military combat via air and sea, as well as in space and cyberspace. The central idea is to develop networked, integrated, intelligent operations across all warfighting domains, coordinated by a joint command.

A central focus of AirSea Battle is to counter strategies of "anti-access/area-denial." For example, in a Taiwan war, China may seek to cut all access to an area surrounding the island. The U.S. military would have to defeat the anti-access strategy to maintain operations and keep Taiwan from being isolated. In 1950, when the U.S. Seventh Fleet intervened in the Chinese civil war and entered the Taiwan Strait to protect Chiang Kaishek, China had no naval power and could only watch. Today, China has an impressive arsenal to block access.

Unlike the situation in 1950, China can now defend its territory with hypersonic missiles, nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers, stealth aircraft, radar jamming devices, and various emerging high-tech innovations. Chinese naval power is expanding and can now project from offshore waters to the Western Pacific. China can sustain a regional war effort over a long period.

"The anti-China campaign is hugely profitable for the military-industrial complex."

The U.S. military, to keep its lead over rapidly advancing Chinese technology and firepower, will require massive sums of money from Congress for improved, cutting-edge weapons systems. Thus, the anti-China campaign is hugely profitable for the military-industrial complex.

War over Taiwan?

The one dispute that could result in armed conflict is Taiwan. China is unlikely to fight a war over tariffs or other disputes, but Taiwan is a question of sovereignty, national pride, and an unfinished civil war. Reunification of the mainland and Taiwan has huge popular support within China as a whole, though most within Taiwan favor the status quo. Peaceful methods toward unification are much preferred, but China could use its military in a conflict over Taiwan.

There are different scenarios of a war over Taiwan and the South China Sea. The U.S. would not fight a land war by invading the Chinese mainland, recognizing that such an army would likely be wiped out. It would be a war by air and sea, thus "AirSea" Battle.

China would have some advantages in such a conflict: ability to amass large numbers of personnel and equipment in coastal provinces, short supply lines, vast reserves, and capacity to sustain long-term combat. There would be all-out support from the Chinese people and considerable sympathy from the Global South. The anti-war movement in the U.S. and other Western countries would likely be galvanized into action.

On the other hand, the U.S. still has advantages in high tech weaponry and firepower. Also, the U.S. military has considerable combat experience, while the Chinese have never fought such a war. In the original AirSea Battle plan, modern technology and superior firepower would defeat the slower-moving and inexperienced Chinese mass formations armed with older, low-tech weaponry.

However, in the nearly 15 years since AirSea Battle was published, the Chinese military has made rapid advances. China's ability to sustain a limited, regional war over a long period leads military logic to suggest the U.S., in pursuit of victory, would expand and escalate the fighting, such as by attacking Chinese bases in the interior. This could greatly escalate the conflict. The many war games fought on various powerful computers yield mixed results; no one really knows what would happen. The previously assured U.S. victory is no longer assumed and China would probably win any sustained conflict as the U.S. is overcommitted globally with more than 800 military bases around the world.

No to Cold War 2.0

Given this situation, what do we do? Will war break out? Neither the people in Taiwan nor those on the Chinese mainland want war. But war could be provoked by a declaration of independence by a U.S.-allied Taiwan government, backed by the U.S. diplomatically and militarily. Therefore, it is essential to uphold the one-China policy, which recognizes that the Taiwan issue will be resolved by the Chinese people on both sides of the strait and that no U.S. intervention is justified. Most countries of the world, including the U.S., have officially adopted this position, but U.S. policy in practice is a different matter, and hard right-wing Republicans might try to abandon peace in an anti-Communist crusade, which would include a new McCarthyism and repression at home.

Most pro-peace and progressive forces in the U.S. oppose a war with China, but there is little they are doing together to stop such a war. In a rapidly emerging crisis leading to a shooting war, it is possible various organizations would join together. But what can be done to proactively build unified opposition to Cold War 2.0 and prevent such a crisis from occurring?

Cutting the military budget and countering anti-China propaganda in the media are important. At the same time, the peace movement needs unity, and it also needs more connections to broader social justice movements within the anti-MAGA coalition.

The opinions of the author do not necessarily reflect the positions of the CPUSA.

Images: U.S. President Joe Biden and President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping shake hands (datainnovation.org); U.S. aircraft fly over the Navy's USS Ronald Reagan in the South China Sea by U.S. Pacific Fleet (CC BY-NC 2.0); Chinese citizens wave the U.S. and China flags as a PLA ship arrives in Hawaii by U.S. Pacific Fleet (CC BY-NC 2.0)

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