What Did Texas Instruments Say Before Its Stock Took Off

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Investors holding Texas Instruments (TXN) stock in the year through November 9, 2026, earned 87.2%, compared with 13.7% for the S&P 500. By the third quarter of 2026, the company was growing sales in every market it serves, during what management called a strong cyclical recovery. Yet the shares had slipped about 1% in the six months before November 6, 2025. Was that recovery already showing in what Texas Instruments said and filed before November 2025?

The January 2025 Call Said Analog Sales Had Turned

The recovery was already showing. Those signs first appeared on the January 23, 2025, earnings call. Management said analog revenue grew 2% from a year earlier in the fourth quarter of 2024, snapping eight quarters of decline. Analog chips made up 77.8% of the company's 2024 revenue, so a turn in that segment marked a shift for most of the business.

That signal was small and easy to miss. On the same call, management said the industrial market remained down by a low single-digit percentage, and the company was cutting factory production.

Did Texas Instruments Keep Growing Through September 2025?

Yes. Revenue in the quarter ended in March 2025, filed on April 24, rose 11.1% from a year earlier, and the quarter ended in June, filed on July 29, brought a 16.4% rise. The quarter ended in September grew 14.2%, slower than June but still in double digits.

Margins widened as well. The operating margin climbed from 32.5% in the March quarter to 35.1% in the June quarter and 36.9% in the September quarter.

Management's last word before the stock's year of gains was cautious, though. On the October 21, 2025 call, it said the market recovery was continuing, but at a slower pace. So a reader at the time had a recovery that management itself described as losing speed, which is a less clear signal than it looks now.

How Fast Was Texas Instruments Growing By Late 2026?

Analog revenue grew 32% from a year earlier in the third quarter of 2026, advancing far faster than it had at the turn, management said on the October 21, 2026, call. Analog chips made up 79.2% of the company's revenue in fiscal 2025, so that growth reached most of what Texas Instruments sells.

Texas Instruments' 87.2% return was not unique: Analog Devices returned 71.6% over the same dates, though Microchip Technology returned only 6.3%.

Is Texas Instruments' Recovery Still Building Today?

On the latest quarter, yes. Revenue growth from a year earlier rose quarter after quarter, from 10.4% in the quarter ended December 2025 to 27.7% in the quarter ended September 2026. Management also said on the October call that industrial sales had just climbed back to their level of the third quarter of 2022, a peak the market had not reached in four years.

The fourth quarter of 2026 is less certain. Management projected fourth-quarter revenue at $5.8 billion to $6.3 billion, a range centered close to the $6.06 billion the company reported for the third quarter.

Analog sales, which management said in January 2025 had turned, are still growing, and the company's yearly growth rate is still rising. Year-on-year revenue growth is the number to watch in the fourth-quarter report, expected in January 2027.

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