By Abygail Streff, Economist / Policy Analyst Sugar markets have made quite the stir with ...

By Abygail Streff, Economist / Policy Analyst

Sugar markets have made quite the stir with Coca-Cola announcing a plan to release a "new" coke sweetened with U.S cane sugar. This "new" drink is expected to hit shelves this fall after recent political pressure to move away from current high-fructose corn syrup and back to cane sugar. The President of Corn Refiners Association and CEO predicts this will lead to a rise in foreign cane sugar imports. A complete switch in sweeteners would create a lack of sufficient domestic supply would create a deficit in the market for United States produced sugar. Coca-Cola has indicated this "new" product is simply an alternative not a replacement. In 2024-2025 Nebraska is projected to produce around 1.42 million short tons of sugar from sugar beet production. Those production tons put Nebraska 5^th in the nation in sugar beet production.

So, what is the state of sugar supply and demand for the 2025-2026 year? As the figure above shows, since around 2022 U.S. sugar deliveries specifically for food and beverage use have been declining year over year. The USDA's Economic Research Service released their July 2025 outlook on sugar supply and demand. A higher supply is estimated while Mexico's sugar exports to the United States have been reduced. The 2025-2026 supply is estimated to be around 34,000 short ton, raw value (STRV) higher than last month. The United State's sugar imports from Mexico are forecast to be lower around 229,650 STRV. Mexico's exports are lowered due to the United State's beginning stocks of sugar and consumption demand slowing. There was a weaker delivery demand for sugar for human consumption and food use. Changes in sugar demand are sure to make waves in the market and change this outlook more drastically before the end of the year. Human consumption of sugar has been trending down. The current supply is so far unaffected by these changes. But consumer interest and demand will drive these changes long-term.