February 12, 2026 - AI in Hurricane Forecasting at the National Hurricane Center: A Q&A with NHC Science Operation Officer Wallace Hogsett

What new benefits or improvements is this AI technology bringing to the hurricane forecast?

First, I would like to encourage everyone to focus on the NHC forecast, as verification analysis over multiple storms and forecasts shows the official forecast is the most skillful and consistent, surpassing any individual model forecast. It takes a long time to fully evaluate the skill and reliability of new models, and we don't like to point to a single model's success or failure as indicative of the overall value of a new tool. However, one storm that stood out in 2025 was Hurricane Melissa, which was a very difficult-to-forecast and impactful storm. The AI models honed in very early on the likely track and intensity and provided very valuable guidance to complement our traditional NWP guidance. It is just one example, and there are other examples where the traditional models performed better. However it was promising to see the new tools performing well. This is all part of the learning process for forecasters, and we're still in the early stages.

AI systems are computationally very efficient - they can produce a forecast very quickly. This opens the door to produce very large ensembles, or ranges of possible solutions, to provide hazard risk information and enable more informed decisions for those in the path of the storm. On the other hand, AI systems are evolving quickly and require one to constantly understand why the model generated the result that it produced. Active research is ongoing to help forecasters understand not only the answer the model produces, but also why it produced that answer. We will likely have a more complete answer in a few years as the technology matures and we gain more experience over many different storms.

We often hear this question, and we're learning that the answer is a resounding "no". The number of available tools and models is increasing at a pace that is faster than I have ever seen in my career. However, it is critical that we understand the tools' outputs, strengths, and weaknesses to continue providing forecasts and warnings that are trusted for decision-making. None of the models are perfect, and they never will be. Now more than ever, we need trusted experts in the loop to observe, synthesize, and make sense of the vast amounts of information. AI will likely assist in efficiently synthesizing information, but without experts in the loop to constantly evaluate and integrate new tools and technologies and communicate a coherent risk-based message, lives and property would be at greater risk.

Every person at NHC takes very seriously our mission to protect lives and property from the risks posed by hurricanes. We will continue to move very quickly to incorporate new tools, which allow us to constantly improve our forecasts, warnings and hazard risk information that we provide to everyone in harm's way.