Economic Snapshot Shows Alaska Seafood Industry Suffered $1.8 Billion Loss 2022–2023

NOAA Fisheries has released a new economic snapshotfocused on the Alaska seafood industry. Economists estimate that the Alaska seafood industry suffered an $1.8 billion loss (2022-2023). The Alaska fishing industry saw a 50 percent decline in profitability (2021-2023).

"The Alaska seafood industry is a major contributor to the U.S. seafood sector," said Robert Foy, director of the Alaska Fisheries Science Center. "The social and economic ramifications of Alaska's losses have reverberated down the West Coast and across the country."

This has resulted in more than 38,000 job losses nationwide and a $4.3 billion loss in total U.S. output (the total dollar value of all goods and services produced). The most affected states (including Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and California) saw a combined loss of $191 million in state and local tax revenues.

Fishing at the Core of Alaska Culture

Seafood is the top private sector employer in Alaska. For many Alaska coastal communities, fisheries are the primary contributor to their local economy, helping shape their social structures and cultural identities.

"Commercial fisheries have flourished in Alaska for generations, shaping social structures, cultural identity, and robust local economies. Beyond the economic impacts, the decline of fisheries in the region threatens a way of life, sense of place, community, and identity," said Steve Kasperski, lead author of the snapshot and an economist with the Alaska Fisheries Science Center.

The 2023 downturn led concerned seafood industry members to request that NOAA Fisheries undertake an independent analysis. They wanted to see the data behind the pinch that fishermen, seafood workers, and communities were feeling.

NOAA Fisheries social scientists and economists compiled data from fishing boats, processors, and international trade databases for both state and federal fisheries in Alaska. They interviewed participants in the industry, fishing associations, members of dependent businesses, and Alaska community members. They also consulted trade articles, news stories, and recent reports about Alaska and the global seafood industry. The effort, which focused on the commercial, for-profit seafood industry in Alaska, culminated in the Alaska Seafood Snapshot for 2023.

Key Findings

Economists found that, starting in 2022, the industry experienced:

• Higher costs associated with increased wages
• Higher energy prices
• Higher interest rates

Revenue decreased in 2023 due to declining prices for every major species group.

Retail and Consumer Behavior Changed

They also found that, in the post-pandemic years, retail operational strategies and consumer seafood purchases have changed. For example, retailers have changed how they handle the seasonal influx of seafood products. Historically, retailers would lower prices to clear inventory. However, strong retail demand for seafood during the pandemic as individuals ate at home was followed by a dramatic decline in that demand as restaurants and schools opened up. This meant that retailers were saddled with high-priced inventory and lower demand.

Retailers transitioned to keeping supply lower by slowly moving inventory out of cold storage. This practice lowered the seafood supply in the market and kept prices higher, allowing retailers to stay afloat. But it also meant seafood producers, processors, and wholesalers in Alaska demanded a lower quantity of seafood. Retail seafood prices have softened somewhat in 2024, but not by enough to entice consumers to purchase the volumes they bought in 2020-2021.

International Competition

An additional challenge for Alaska fishermen is increased competition abroad. Several Russian fisheries have earned Marine Stewardship Council certification and use the trade name "Alaska pollock" in marketing. This results in sustainable domestic fisheries having less of an edge in the global marketplace. Lower labor and operating costs in production and processing abroad, as a result of lower environmental and labor standards, also hurt our competitive standing. Other factors that affect our competitive edge include:

• International trade barriers
• Strengthening U.S. dollar
• Inflation, which affects consumer demand for higher priced seafood products
• Declines in seafood processing jobs and plant closures in the United States
• Lack of revenue insurance for harvesters and processors such as farmers have under the U.S. Department of Agriculture

All of this contributed to a 32 percent decline in vessel revenues from 2022 to 2023, totaling $617 million. And first wholesale values dropped $1.2 billion, or 26 percent. This total direct loss equaled $1.8 billion.

"We also looked at regional trends across Alaska," added Kasperski.

The Gulf of Alaska has experienced a decade of ecological and economic challenges. These have led to declining participation and undermined the economic status and social well-being of fishing communities. The Bering Sea has experienced different but similarly scaled ecological changes over the last decade.

For instance, the total number of active commercial fishing vessels declined by 29 percent in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands from 2003-2023. The number of active seafood processors declined by 32 percent. In the Gulf of Alaska, these numbers declined by 20 percent and 7 percent respectively.

Climate Change Affects Fishing Communities

Climatic impacts are also profoundly affecting local communities. For instance, a marine heatwave in 2017-2018 led to a crash in the highly lucrative snow crab fisheryin 2022. It also coincided with Bristol Bay red king crab fishery closures from 2021 to 2023. This was devastating to the Bering Sea crab fleet and, in particular, the community of St. Paul. This island community in the middle of the Bering Sea depends on a large on-island seafood processing facility. The closures led to a 60 percent loss in its community budget. This deeply impacted this small community, from its leadership down to its citizens and families.

The future of the seafood industry in Alaska is clouded by these warming ocean conditions associated with climate change. When coupled with economic downturns like those reported in 2023, this undermines the capacity for the Alaska seafood industry and associated communities to remain resilient.

Promoting Resilience in the U.S. Seafood Industry

NOAA Fisheries is committed to supporting a thriving domestic U.S. seafood economy and enhancing the resilience of the seafood sector in the face of climate change and other factors. We recently released the National Seafood Strategy Implementation Plan. It identifies specific actions intended to help address challenges in the seafood sector, both nationally and in Alaska specifically. Actions such as collecting and sharing data like those included in this snapshot with industry, fisheries managers, and the public.

"This snapshot is an example of the type of research we intend to advance through this national effort," said Dr. Michael Rubino, NOAA Fisheries' Senior Advisor for Seafood Strategy. "With climate change, resource managers, fishermen, and other interest groups need timely social and economic data so they can understand and respond to challenges like we are now facing in the Alaska seafood industry."

The State of Alaska also recently set up a Joint Legislative Seafood Industry Task Force to respond to the Alaska seafood crisis. Their report is expected in January 2025. NOAA Fisheries recently presented findings from the economic snapshot in a Task Force meeting and will continue to support their efforts.

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