Estimating poverty mobility in Tanzania: Evidence from pseudo panel data 1991 2018

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1. Abstract
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Abstract

Using pseudo-panel data from five rounds of the Household Budget Survey (HBS), the authors estimate poverty dynamics (movement in and out of poverty over time) in Tanzania for more than a quarter century. The study finding shows that while extreme poverty has declined significantly during this period, basic need poverty has only declined slightly, and remains high in rural areas.  For poverty dynamics, the study finding shows that the percentage of households moving out of poverty has been declining over time. Furthermore, the study findings show a high degree of extreme (food) poverty mobility but a low basic need poverty mobility, where relatively high degree of poverty mobility is observed more for urban than rural areas.

In addition, the findings reveal a greater proportion of households moving out of poverty than falling into poverty, however, the percentage of households falling and staying into poverty appears to increase over time, implying a decline in poverty reduction efforts. The authors estimates are closer and more consistent with other recent estimates on poverty mobility and vulnerability in a couple of sub-Saharan African countries, including earlier studies in Tanzania. The study adds to empirical literature that attempts to estimate poverty dynamics over a long period. More importantly, the study compares poverty dynamics over a long period by exploiting various cross-sectional surveys from 1991 to 2018 (over a quarter century).

This is an output of the Structural Transformation and Economic Growth (STEG) programme.

Citation

Hongoli J and Leyaro V. 'Estimating poverty mobility in Tanzania: Evidence from pseudo-panel data 1991-2018' Structural Transformation and Economic Growth (STEG) WP084, 2024

Links

Estimating poverty mobility in Tanzania: Evidence from pseudo-panel data 1991-2018

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