Special Election Update from ACEC’s Advocacy Team

While the vote counting is still happening with a number of congressional races around the country, we wanted to give you some initial perspectives:

• Stating the obvious here - Republicans had a good night. Former President Trump won all 7 "Toss-Up" states which put him over the 270 electoral college votes threshold. As we expected, control of the US Senate flipped to the GOP with 52 members and the possibility of gaining an additional 2 or 3 seats from states that are too close to call. There will be at least 11 new senators with a potential for an additional 3 depending on the remaining races to be called. Republicans are poised to keep control of the US House, needing an additional 12 seats out of the remaining 47 that are uncalled at this point.

• ACEC's win/loss record so far: House: 269 wins, 6 losses, 25 races undecided; Senate: 15 wins, 1 loss 3 undecided.
• Standout races: Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) won in a Democrat favored race and is one of the four remaining GOP House members that voted for the IIJA. Other notable wins for ACEC-backed candidates in competitive districts include Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA), Chair of the Problem Solvers Caucus and a member of the Ways & Means Committee; Rep. Sharice Davids (D-KS), a member of the Transportation & Infrastructure Committee; and Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) who serves on the Energy & Commerce Committee. On the flip side, ACEC/PAC supported incumbents and candidates that lost include Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR), 2 GOP members from New York - Reps. Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams - and former Michigan State Senator Curtis Hertel (D-MI).

What does a Republican sweep mean in terms of key ACEC priorities in the new Congress?

• Tax policy - If Republicans retain control of the House - which we expect - a major priority will be to extend the expiring portions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. While the margin in the Senate may be better for Republicans than in 2017 (which was 52-48), the Republican margin in the House was 241-194 in 2017 but may only be single digits next year. Also, as mentioned previously, concerns over the national debt - which was $20 trillion in 2017 and currently exceeds $35 trillion - will loom larger over the debate in 2025. The key players on the tax writing committees won't change, but Republicans take over the leadership: Ways and Means Chair will be Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO), and the ranking member will be Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA). In the Senate, Senator Mike Crapo takes over as Chair of the Senate Finance Committee, while Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR) will be the ranking Democrat. It was Senator Crapo who pumped the brakes on the House-passed tax bill that restored the deductibility on R&D expenses (although he wasn't opposed to that piece of the package). Senator Crapo supports the extension of TCJA and opposes raising the corporate tax rate. He has also suggested that extension of TCJA - because it is current policy - should not have a budgetary impact. The Democratic side of the Senate Finance Committee will look very different in the next Congress, due to three retirements (Senators Stabenow, Carper, and Cardin), one election defeat (Senator Brown), one open seat (resignation of Senator Menendez), and one race not yet called (Senator Casey). Given the change in control of the Senate, the overall number of Democrats on the committee will shrink.

• Infrastructure - the Trump Administration will oversee implementation of the last two years of the IIJA, including the allocation of billions in discretionary grants. Emphasis will shift away from grant criteria focused on climate resilience, sustainability, equity and justice considerations with more focus on traditional road and bridge projects. The Administration may also look at the potential rescission or reallocation of some unspent funds, including high-speed rail programs. The reauthorization of surface transportation programs in 2026 will largely be led by congressional committees of jurisdiction. That has traditionally been a bipartisan exercise and may be again, particularly if the margins of control are very narrow. In the Senate, Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) will chair the Environment & Public Works Committee, which has primary responsibility for highway and water infrastructure. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) will likely take over as the top Democrat. In the House, the current chair of the Transportation & Infrastructure Committee, Sam Graves (R-MO), is term limited but seeking a waiver to stay on. If he is not given a waiver, the next-most-senior member is Rick Crawford (R-AR), who currently leads the Subcommittee on Highways & Transit. Rick Larsen (D-WA) will continue as the top Democrat on the committee.

• Energy & Environment - Permitting reform will remain a top priority for Congressional Republicans, and we can expect to see the Trump Administration take executive action to expand fracking to grow domestic oil/gas projects and support legislation to further speed up the federal permitting process. We expect the Trump Administration will pivot away from the Biden Administration's climate policies and promote traditional energy resources like oil and gas. Congressional Republicans and the Trump Administration are also likely to rescind climate and green energy provisions like offshore wind in the Inflation Reduction Act. The biennial Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) is Congressionally driven and usually garners strong bipartisan support. That is not expected to change with the new Congress. In the Senate, Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) is in line to Chair the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee with Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM) taking over as the ranking Democrat. In the House, Frank Pallone (D-NJ) will continue as the top Democrat on the Energy & Commerce Committee. There is a competitive race for the top Republican with the retirement of Cathy McMorris Rogers (R-WA).

We will continue to post updates in the coming days as the next Congress takes shape, both in terms of outstanding races and as the policy picture comes into greater focus as leadership and committee assignments are finalized.