COP31: What’s at stake at the UN climate conference in Antalya

From 9 - 20 November, world leaders, negotiators and campaigners will gather in Antalya, Türkiye, for COP31. COP31 is the 31st Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), where governments negotiate global action on climate change. This year, Türkiye will host, while Australia will chair the negotiations under a compromise over who got to host.

The stakes are high. Climate impacts are speeding up, countries aren't cutting emissions fast enough, and the money promised to help poorer countries still falls short of what they need to protect their people and economies.

After last year's COP30 in Belém, the pressure is on governments to scale up climate finance, accelerate adaptation, strengthen support to communities suffering irreversible loss and damage, and advance a just transition away from fossil fuels. This COP is about turning promises into concrete action.

Here are the key issues to watch.

1. Climate finance at COP31: where is the money?

At COP29 in 2024, countries agreed on a new climate finance goal of at least $300 billion a year by 2035 that rich nations would channel to support developing countries. In Antalya, the argument will be about who pays, how, and how quickly.

CARE believes funding should mostly come as grants, not loans that push poorer countries deeper into debt. This will help ensure funding reaches the people who need it most - especially women-led communities and communities on the frontline of the climate crisis.

2. Climate adaptation: helping people cope with a changing climate

From prolonged droughts to destructive floods and failed harvests, climate change is already disrupting millions of lives. Adaptation means helping communities to prepare for climate impacts already happening, and protect their homes, livelihoods, and food supplies.

At COP30 last year, countries agreed to triple climate adaptation finance by 2035 and adopted a set of indicators to measure progress. Yet, important questions remain on how progress can be measured and how countries will get the resources needed to turn their climate adaptation plans into action. In Antalya, parties will try to iron out these details; developing countries will push for clearer commitments and greater support, leading to action on the ground rather than staying words on paper.

For CARE, this means adequate funding for climate adaptation that responds to communities' priorities, is locally led and responsive to women and girls' specific needs.

3. Loss and damage: support when prevention of climate damage isn't enough

Even with stronger climate action, some damage cannot be prevented nor adapted to. Homes are destroyed, farmland becomes unusable, ecosystems are damaged and communities lose livelihoods, land and sometimes their cultural heritage.

The Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage was created to help vulnerable countries facing these climate impacts, but questions remain about how much money will go in, and how reliably and quickly support can reach affected communities.

For CARE, the emphasis is on new, additional and predominantly grant-based public finance, with particular attention to communities already experiencing devastating climate impacts.

4. Mitigation: cutting emissions and shifting away from fossil fuels

The world is still not on track to limit global warming to 1.5°C from pre-industrial times, the limit scientists say is critical. Countries are being pushed to strengthen their national climate plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), particularly their targets for 2035. Yet, they remain insufficient to close the gap.

A major test for COP31 will be if governments can build momentum towards moving away from fossil fuels and advancing with the Just Transition Mechanism agreed in Belém to ensure that the transition to cleaner energy is fair, protects workers and supports poorer countries.

5. Gender equality at COP31: implementing the Belém Gender Action Plan

Women and girls often face some of the harshest consequences of climate change yet remain underrepresented in decisions about how to respond. At COP30, governments adopted a new plan - the Belém Gender Action Plan - setting out measures to put gender equality at the heart of climate action. Now the job is to make it real.

For CARE this means more women and girls in leadership and decision-making on climate action, funding for women's rights organisations, and accountability when promises aren't kept.

6. The Paris Agreement and Global Stocktake: measuring progress at COP31

At COP21 in 2015, 195 countries signed up to the Paris Agreement, a legally binding treaty on climate change that set out a number of goals, including to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

COP31 will mark the start of the second Global Stocktake, the process that evaluates how far the world has come to meeting the Paris Agreement's goals. The first stocktake, completed in 2023, confirmed that the world was falling dangerously behind.

Three years later, the challenge is not simply to measure progress again, but to ensure governments act on the findings and take greater accountability, and that there's more support for countries struggling to deliver. Countries will also discuss how to improve the implementation and transparency of their climate commitments - including through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), National Adaptation Plans, and national reporting.

What's the real test of success at COP31?

October's pre-COP meeting in Fiji and Tuvalu set the political tone for Antalya. Leaders highlighted four priorities: keeping the 1.5°C goal within reach, making climate finance easier to access, protecting oceans, and ensuring small island nations have a stronger voice in global climate decisions.

Ultimately, beyond the negotiating rooms, the measure of success for COP31 will be far more concrete: will the people living with the worst effects of climate change finally receive the support and resources they need?

What action is CARE taking to address the impacts of climate change?

Around the world, climate-related hazards like droughts, floods and storms are on the rise. Often, the communities most vulnerable to the consequences of climate change are already facing extreme challenges like conflict and poverty.

CARE International UK's Early Action Fund supports communities to do just this, by funding disaster preparedness and early action to climate hazards - before their most acute humanitarian consequences are felt.