Türkiye: Grain and Feed Update

Favorable weather and above-average rainfall are driving record wheat production (22.5 MMT) and a sharp rebound in barley output (8.1 MMT), though heavy spring rains delayed harvests and caused quality issues in southern and southeastern regions. Wheat consumption is expected to rise largely due to increased feed use, while Turkiye's wheat imports and exports remain substantial, supported by TMO's newly doubled intervention prices for the 2026 harvest. Corn production is forecast to fall to 7.1 MMT as farmers shift toward wheat, oilseeds, and vegetables in Central Anatolia and the Aegean due to weak cotton prices. Rice area and production are set to grow modestly, with imports easing as domestic supply improves, though industry concerns persist that current tariffs are insufficient to protect local producers from cheaper imports. Across all four crops, stocks are generally rising in tandem with strong harvests, except for rice, which is expected to see a modest stock decline.