Between growth and pressure: Rotterdam's 2025 container year under review

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The 2025 annual figures confirm a clear shift in global trade flows. Imports are growing strongly, while exports are lagging, and the container balance is under increasing pressure. At the same time, Rotterdam is reinforcing its position as Europe's leading container hub, despite mounting geopolitical and logistical challenges.

These developments are in line with the insights set out in the 2026 Container Market Outlook, in which the Port of Rotterdam Authority and Xeneta analyst Peter Sand identify the key trends in the container market. The publication outlines shifts in trade flows, networks and the functioning of the port system, developments that are now visible in Rotterdam. 'This is no longer something for the distant future. These changes are already visible in volumes, in trade flows and in the way the port system operates,' says Frank van der Laan, Senior Business Intelligence Advisor at the Port of Rotterdam Authority.

Rising imports, falling exports and a structural imbalance

The 2025 annual figures paint a clear picture: international container trade is shifting, and Rotterdam is already feeling the effects. Import volumes rose by an average of 3.9 per cent, mainly driven by a strong increase in full containers from Asia (+9.3 per cent) and North America (+16 per cent).

At the same time, exports are lagging behind. Exports to Asia in particular fell again, this time by 4 per cent. Compared with the peak year of 2018, exports to Asia were down 20 per cent, while exports to China were more than 40 per cent lower. This has led to a structural container imbalance. Between 2020 and 2025, the gap between imports and exports widened by 1.47 million TEU, further increasing the number of empty containers circulating in the system.

According to Van der Laan, this imbalance is not a temporary phenomenon but the result of structural shifts in the economic relationship between Europe and Asia. 'China has emerged as a technologically advanced manufacturing hub that now also competes with Europe in high-value sectors. At the same time, production costs in Europe have risen due to higher energy prices and stricter regulations.' China's weak domestic demand and focus on exports - compounded by the loss and diversion of part of the US market - are adding further pressure.

But China is not the only factor, Van der Laan emphasises. A broader competitiveness challenge is also at play within Europe. Companies need to take a closer look at their supply chain strategy and where they can add value. Europe will have to ask itself what it can do to respond to these developments, and how it can strengthen its position by collaborating more intelligently and seizing opportunities in new production and trade models.

Carrier network changes and geopolitics determine volumes

In addition to shifting trade flows, the volume mix in 2025 was strongly influenced by strategic decisions made by container shipping companies. Changes in alliances and the reorganisation of shipping routes altered the position of ports within various trading regions, with direct consequences for Rotterdam.

Trade with North America clearly demonstrates this. While total EU-US trade declined slightly in 2025, volumes in Rotterdam increased by more than 16 per cent. According to Van der Laan, this is not a sign of stronger demand but the direct result of changes in container alliances. The new composition of services has given Rotterdam a more central position within several North American shipping routes.

In South America, the opposite occurred: due to a redistribution of calls, cargo shifted to other ports, causing Rotterdam to lose market share. The figures confirm that carrier capacity and routing often have a greater impact on volumes than trends in macroeconomic demand.

In addition, 2025 marked the first time that the hub-and-spoke model was applied on a large scale in European container traffic. Major deepsea calls are concentrated at a limited number of hubs, while regional ports handle more feeder and distribution flows. This shift increasingly determines where cargo enters Europe and how freight moves across the continent.

Geopolitical developments also play a significant role. US tariffs and changing trade relations are impacting shipping lines' planning and positioning, leading to shifts in volumes and more irregular patterns. According to Van der Laan, this reinforces the dynamics: 'We see that geopolitical decisions and network adjustments increasingly influence one another. This makes the playing field less predictable and requires more flexible chains.'

Taken together, these developments show that container flows in 2025 have become less demand-driven and increasingly shaped by strategic and geopolitical decisions by shipping companies and governments. This trend is expected to continue in 2026.

Pressure on the chain: hinterland growth, transhipments and limited space

The network changes also affected hinterland transport. Hinterland volume increased by 11.7 per cent, reaching a record of over 1 million TEU in November. At the same time, total volume growth of 3 per cent lagged behind the European average, as available terminal capacity did not provide sufficient room for both transhipment and hinterland flows. To maximise the utilisation of hinterland flows, part of the transhipment cargo was diverted to other ports in the region in 2025. As a result, transhipment volumes in Rotterdam declined by 16 per cent.

These choices align with Rotterdam's structural key position. Approximately 30 per cent of all Northwest European containers pass through the port. The combination of larger vessel calls, higher volumes and limited terminal capacity makes the system sensitive to peaks, which affect inland shipping, rail and road. As Van der Laan summarises: 'It underlines that volume growth is not only a challenge on the seaward side but also in the hinterland. The entire chain is under pressure.'

Terminal capacity under pressure, but expansions strengthen future viability

'Due to uncertainties in supply chains, longer dwell times and delays of vessels from Asia, it is extremely difficult to maximise port capacity,' Van der Laan continues. The pressure on capacity further increased in 2025 due to waiting times. Two periods had a significant impact on productivity. In early 2025, dense and persistent fog caused significant waiting times on the seaward side. In October, two heavy storms combined with a prolonged strike by lashers brought productivity to a virtual standstill.

To relieve the pressure on terminals, significant investments are being made in Rotterdam to expand terminal capacity, including at APMT2, Euromax and RWG. 'Rotterdam is the only Northwest European port with room for substantial growth - up to 8 million additional TEU per year. This will enable us to continue facilitating the expected consumption growth and economic development in Northwest Europe,' says Van der Laan. He predicts that 'these expansions will definitely pay off in the coming years.' With new, high-quality terminal capacities, he even expects growth that will outpace the market, including a return of transhipment to Rotterdam. 'This year will still be quite challenging, but from 2027 capacity will increase and waiting times are expected to decline.'

Resilience and data sharing: collaborating in a structurally volatile chain

According to Van der Laan, the trends predicted in the 2026 Outlook are already emerging in Rotterdam. The container chain is becoming structurally more volatile due to geopolitical tensions, climate extremes and changes in carrier networks. That requires a different approach, he says: 'Supply chains have become disruptive. Resilience must therefore be central to the way we organise the chain in 2026 and beyond.'

According to Van der Laan, resilience does not solely depend on physical capacity, but also on how predictably the chain organises itself. Information plays an important role in this, he explains: 'Not as an administrative obligation, but as an operational commitment between chain partners. Parties must share information more quickly and consistently to keep peaks manageable.' However, better information alone is not enough. Organisations also need to rethink their supply chains and remain open to new ways of working, Van der Laan says. 'This combination is essential because disruptions cannot be prevented. The question is not whether the chain will come under pressure, but how it will respond when it does.'

Supply chains become stronger when partners in the chain truly collaborate. 'Rotterdam has already taken steps towards data-driven collaboration,' says Van der Laan. 'The aim is to ensure that the port is better positioned to cope with peaks and disruptions and network changes. Chain partners will also need to take responsibility and actively participate.'

For shippers and freight forwarders, this means that the quality of their supply chains is becoming increasingly important. 'Sound inventory management and reliable supply chains are crucial for success. Timely information, agile processes and efficient container handling contribute directly to competitiveness,' says Van der Laan. 'In a world where trade flows are shifting, the key to success lies not just in volume, but in collaboration, information and adaptability.'