Experts React: Starvation in Gaza

Commentary by Mona Yacoubian, Will Todman, Jon B. Alterman, Caitlin Welsh, and Zane Swanson

Published July 28, 2025

Editor's Note: Additional expert perspectives will be added in the coming days.

How Did Gaza Descend into Mass Starvation and What Is the Path Out? | Mona Yacoubian

Netanyahu Tries to Balance International and Domestic Pressures | Will Todman

This Was Israel's 9/11. Will Gaza Be Its Iraq? | Jon B. Alterman

It May Never Be Declared, but Famine Is in Gaza | Caitlin Welsh and Zane Swanson

How Did Gaza Descend into Mass Starvation and What Is the Path Out?

Mona Yacoubian, Director and Senior Adviser, Middle East Program

Gaza's accelerated descent into mass starvation dates to Israel's decision to impose a full blockade on the territory on March 2. The move was intended to pressure Hamas to release additional hostages. Instead, the existing ceasefire collapsed two weeks later, and Gaza began its downward spiral into the worst humanitarian crisis since Hamas's October 7, 2023, terror attack. Today, Gaza is facing unprecedented levels of hunger and acute malnutrition. The World Food Program estimates that a third of Gazans do not eat for days at a time amid alarming reports of mounting deaths from starvation.

Following growing criticism, Israel implemented a new humanitarian aid system centered on the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF)-a controversial organization whose aid delivery model does not follow established humanitarian principles of neutral, independent, impartial, and safe aid distribution. Israel long criticized the previous UN-led system, citing significant aid diversion to Hamas, although Israeli military officials say no evidence exists that backs those charges. The GHF currently operates four distribution centers (as opposed to hundreds under the previous UN system), where Gazans must traverse dangerous conflict zones to access aid that is available only in paltry amounts. The result has been a dramatic uptick in those killed while seeking food, due to the chaotic conditions and attendant violence around the distribution centers. The Gaza Health Ministry-operating in Hamas-controlled Gaza-estimates that more than 1,000 people have been killed by Israeli troops in the disorderly conditions.

With international outcry at a crescendo, Israel recently announced new measures to improve the aid flow, including pauses, corridors, and airdrops. However, these measures will not remedy Gaza's widespread hunger. Indeed, airdrops are both dangerous and ineffective. Instead, the path out of starvation in Gaza must entail Israel's immediate willingness to allow sufficient food aid levels to feed Gaza's 2 million people. Allowing safe, unrestricted food assistance must be decoupled from all other challenges in Gaza. It must be allowed to proceed immediately, even in the absence of a ceasefire. Going forward, the provision of lifesaving humanitarian assistance in Gaza must be insulated from the most dire effects of the war as necessitated by the Law of Armed Conflict. Ultimately, only a ceasefire will ensure against continued humanitarian suffering in Gaza.

Netanyahu Tries to Balance International and Domestic Pressures

Will Todman, Senior Fellow, Middle East Program

Building international condemnation of Israel's military campaign in Gaza and the humanitarian crisis in recent weeks forced Israel to announce its "humanitarian pause." On July 21, 30 states from the Global North condemned Israel's denial of humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza, days after 12 Global South states announced measures to pursue accountability for Israel's "illegal policies and practices." France also became the first G7 member to declare its intention to recognize Palestine as a state. Then, 109 humanitarian organizations warned of "mass starvation." These moves, along with growing public outcry around the world at images from Gaza, prompted Netanyahu's fears that Israel was losing the support of even its traditional allies.

However, the United States' ongoing support for the Israeli government has cushioned Israel from international pressure. The United States withdrew from ceasefire talks on July 24, blaming Hamas's intransigence, and President Trump criticized France's pledge to recognize Palestinian statehood. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said Trump believes there is no way to negotiate an end to the war and Israel must "take the place by force then start over again." While U.S. military and diplomatic support to Israel continues, the Israeli government is unlikely to shift its strategic priorities in Gaza.

Domestically, Netanyahu's policies are largely popular. A survey conducted in late May found that two-thirds of Israeli Jews opposed increasing the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza, while another survey found that 64.5 percent of Israelis were "not at all" or "not very" concerned about the humanitarian situation in Gaza. Unless public opinion shifts more decisively, Netanyahu will feel public pressure to continue military operations in Gaza. Prime Minister Netanyahu is also leading a fragile coalition government, with some members staunchly opposed to increasing aid to Gaza. Yet, some domestic criticism is growing. On July 28, two leading Israeli human rights groups-B'Tselem and Physicians for Human Rights-Israel-concluded that Israel is committing genocide.

For now, international and domestic pressure is producing a change in Israel's tactics, not strategy, in Gaza.

This Was Israel's 9/11. Will Gaza Be Its Iraq?

Jon B. Alterman, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy

"This was our 9/11," Israelis often say when the topic of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks comes up. The part of the attack they think about was the shock, the pain, the anxiety, and the solidarity that 9/11 evoked among Americans. The part many Israelis think less about is how the 9/11 attacks pushed the United States into two drawn-out wars that confounded three presidents and ended in something much less than a clear victory.

For the George W. Bush administration, the 9/11 attacks were a consequence of tyranny in the Arab world. While the administration fought both a conventional war against Saddam Hussein and widespread counterinsurgencies both Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. path to victory was spreading "freedom" in the Middle East. Vanquishing tyrants and empowering populations would unleash forces of moderation throughout the region.

While the U.S. military ground out victories, freedom proved harder to secure. Expectations dropped again and again. The political program proved impractical, and arguably impossible. While many war aims were met, the wars' strategic goals were not.

As it began its war in Gaza, the Israeli government pledged to destroy Hamas, and it has repeated its pledge in the months and years since. That, too, is a fundamentally political objective. The Israeli government has been adamant that the Palestinian Authority should not take its place, and it has been skeptical of efforts to allow a technocratic government to take root in Gaza. Rather than support a Palestinian alternative, it has used relentless military assault to force a Palestinian surrender. While tens of thousands of Hamas fighters have been killed, there are few signs surrender is close. Even Gazans who have come to hate Hamas have few reasons to think surrender would improve their lives. Meanwhile, Israel's enemies have deepened global narratives of Israeli inhumanity and indifference to suffering.

Insurgents always have an advantage. Their mere survival represents a defeat for the army fighting them. The eradication of a group with deep political, economic, and social ties throughout Gazan society (and not incidentally, West Bank society) is easy to pledge but hard to achieve. Like the Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan, Israelis have stumbled meeting their political goals through warfare.

Israel's challenge now is to end the war despite its oft-proclaimed war aim being unmet. It can claim victory in the release of hostages, and it can force the exile of some portion of the Hamas leadership, but ultimately Israel will need to find some sort of compromise. The costs of the war are rising sharply for Israel, and the benefits of continuing it are rapidly diminishing.

It May Never Be Declared, but Famine Is in Gaza

Caitlin Welsh, Director, Global Food and Water Security Program

Zane Swanson, Deputy Director, Global Food and Water Security Program

Seventy-nine people have died of starvation in Gaza in the past week, bringing total starvation-related deaths to 147 since the beginning of the war, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. Fourteen of these deaths have occurred in the last 24 hours, and 88 of the total have been children. This rapid increase in malnutrition-related deaths describes what are likely the most devastating humanitarian conditions yet experienced in Gaza and indicates what many are still only speculating-famine.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) applies consistent standards to classify food insecurity crises around the world. The IPC classifies an area as in famine when three thresholds are met or surpassed:

1. ≥20 percent of households face acute food insecurity or an extreme lack of food
2. ≥30 percent of children are acutely malnourished
3. ≥2 adults (or 4 children) die per 10,000 per day due to starvation or malnutrition related mortality.

Following Israel's blockade of food and fuel into Gaza in October 2023 and the ensuing conflict, conditions in parts of Gaza deteriorated to levels consistent with famine by April 2024. Though some officials have used the word, the IPC never formally classified famine in Gaza. Since then, food insecurity in Gaza has remained dire. Conditions changed in early March 2025, when Israel blocked aid into Gaza, and announced the creation of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, an independent regime, to distribute food assistance. Since then, aid flowing into Gaza has been sporadic, ineffective, and in many cases, deadly.

As used by the IPC, the term famine carries significant emotional and political weight. Formal declarations of famine by the Famine Review Committee require time and access to data that the committee may not have. While leaders continue to describe Gaza as "near" famine, it is likely that the condition as described by the international community already exists-and whether or not the specifically outlined conditions exist, Gazans, including children, are dying each day of starvation.

Starvation will continue to kill Gazans until there is a sustained ceasefire and unincumbered influx of humanitarian assistance, including food, clean water, medical and sanitation supplies, and malnutrition treatments. And even if such assistance were allowed, Gazans will continue to require assistance following the provision of such aid, as today's starvation will burden children with lifelong physical and cognitive deficits.

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