A ‘Professor’s Professor’: Jacek Kugler Wins Scholarly Award

Active wars are being fought on battlefields across the world. Their consequences could reshape the global balance of power for generations. For more than 50 years, Jacek Kugler's research has been at the forefront of understanding that balance and the conditions under which it shifts.

Kugler is the co-author of the Power Transition Theory (PTT), which he developed with his mentor, A.F.K. Organski. It can be used to track the relative power of countries as it shifts over time. He has used it to analyze war and peace under different power distributions, and its prominence has only grown during the last half century. It's why the Scientific Study of International Processes Section of the International Studies Association has named him the recipient of the 2025 Distinguished Scholar Award.

Those who know Kugler well understand that he is, fundamentally, someone who lets his work speak for itself. He admits, in his characteristically modest way, that he feels fortunate to receive the award, acknowledging that it's one of the heights of his career because it comes from his peers. "This is a group that knows this stuff, so this is an award I like. This is sort of fun."

His colleagues in the Division of Politics & Economics, on the other hand, are less reserved. Professor Yi Feng calls PTT "one of the major theories in international relations. It has become a paradigm for the study of international peace and conflict. I am delighted to hear he has received this prestigious award."

Kugler says, "What I've spent my life trying to do is generalize Power Transition Theory. [It] suggests that in order to cooperate, you have to be committed to a common set of rules or norms and have a post-materialist attitude," he says. "That is, internally and across society, you are willing to give something and get a sort of relative gain in return, rather than absolute maximalist gains for yourself at all times. You are willing to accept gains even if they are inferior to that of your allies." The conditions for peace in Europe after World War II can be understood with this framework.

A recent example is with Brexit. "We found that societies that deepen integration [economically, politically, culturally, socially] have a lot more common rules and common commitment to the union," Kugler says. "Societies which feel marginal [to that union] constantly try to stop it or even leave." Kugler and colleagues were able to anticipate Brexit before it happened, which is one reason he thinks PTT has been noted with more frequency. "The important point is to show that cooperation is not stable, nor is confrontation. Both are risk-prone."

Kugler has also pioneered the development of decision-making models that accurately forecast current events. His analysis anticipated the Assad regime would be toppled in Syria and outlined more than three years ago that a settlement in the ongoing war in Ukraine would require a transfer of occupied territory to Russia. This broad applicability, alongside its empirical validity, is why Kugler's work stands out. According to Professor and CGU alum Mark Abdollahian, "It yields actionable insights and long-ranging predictions that are consistently proven accurate. From power transitions and great power competition to nuclear deterrence, national political capacity and political demography, his work has shaped national leaders' and decision makers' policies globally."

Abdollahian characterizes Kugler as a "professor's professor," noting the award "serves as testament to his tireless pursuit of evidence-based international relations theory and practice."

Professor Heather Campbell, director of the Division of Politics & Economics, says Kugler has told her that when you study international relations, you either study blood or money, and he studies blood. "But what he really studies is how we as a globe of nations may prevent the spilling of blood. I myself have learned a lot from him about the balance of power, its structure, and its importance."