Industry Analysts Project 11% Increase in S&P 500 Price Over the Next 12 Months

After recently closing at a record-high value, where do industry analysts believe the price of the S&P 500 will go from here?

Industry analysts in aggregate predict the S&P 500 will see a price increase of 11.4% over the next twelve months. This percentage is based on the difference between the bottom-up target price and the closing price for the index as of yesterday (September 25). The bottom-up target price is calculated by aggregating the median target price estimates (based on company-level estimates submitted by industry analysts) for all the companies in the index. On September 25, the bottom-up target price for the S&P 500 was 7,358.64, which was 11.4% above the closing price of 6,604.72.

At the sector level, the Health Care (+15.5%) sector is expected to see the largest price increase, as this sector had the largest upside difference between the bottom-up target price and the closing price on September 25. On the other hand, the Communications Services (+7.5%) sector is expected to see the smallest price increase, as this sector had the smallest upside difference between the bottom-up target price and the closing price on September 25.

At the company level, the ten stocks in the S&P 500 (with a minimum of 5 target prices) with the largest upside and downside differences between their median target price and closing price (on September 25) can be found on page 4.

It is interesting to note that after falling to a recent low of 6,526.32 on May 14, the bottom-up target price for the S&P 500 has increased by 12.8% (to 7,353.68 from 6,526.32) over the past four months. At the sector level, ten sectors have recorded an increase in their bottom-up target price since May 14, led by the Information Technology sector at 23.2% (to 6,252.40 from 5,075.67).

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