SEKO Worldwide LLC

03/05/2026 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 03/05/2026 11:40

Client Advisory: Ongoing Operational Disruptions Across Middle East Airspace – Updated March 5

WHAT'S THE LATEST

Update as of March 5: Airspace shutdowns across the Middle East continue following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 and subsequent Iranian retaliation - including strikes on energy infrastructure and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption has now entered its sixth day with no de-escalation in sight, and civilian airspace remains closed or severely restricted across the region.

Global air cargo capacity has fallen 18% week-over-week, with 13% directly impacted by Middle East closures. Air freight rates are rising sharply due to rerouting, reduced payloads, and fuel cost volatility. Global aviation fuel rose 3.6% last week to $99.40 per barrel, and from U.S. jet fuel increased from $2.50 to $2.83 per gallon - driven by oil market volatility. Carriers may introduce or increase war risk surcharges for shipments routed near or through affected areas.

Disruptions may extend into mid-March or longer if conflict conditions escalate.

SEKO continues to monitor the situation closely and will provide updates as new information becomes available.

WHAT WE KNOW

Closed or Restricted Airspaces

  • Civilian air traffic, including cargo operations, faces severe disruptions due to the following countries implementing full or partial closures:
  • Full closures:
    • Bahrain
    • Kuwait
    • Syria
    • Iran
    • Iraq
    • Israel
    • Qatar
  • Partial closures:
    • Jordan (daytime reopenings but nightly restrictions from 6 p.m. to 7 a.m.)
    • Pakistan (partial commercial closure through 3/31)
    • Saudi Arabia (restrictions near Iraq and the Persian Gulf)
    • United Arab Emirates (Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah impacted)
  • Other affected areas:
    • Lebanon and Oman (indirect operational impacts)
    • Yemen and surrounding Middle East/Persian Gulf corridors have become significant commercial no-fly zones

These restrictions continue to disrupt overflight routes, inbound/outbound traffic, and key transit hubs, severely impacting Asia-Europe, Asia-Africa, and intra-Gulf cargo flows. Increased GPS spoofing and jamming in the region add further operational risks.

Grounded Operations - Major Airlines

Widespread cancellations continue across regional and global carriers:

  • Emirates: All operations to/from Dubai (DXB) suspended until at least 15:00 local time on 3/5, with extensions likely.
    • Impacts passenger, freighter, and belly cargo.
    • Limited repositioning flights operated earlier, but no full resumption.
  • Qatar Airways: All flights to/from Doha (DOH) suspended indefinitely due to Qatari airspace closure.
    • Impacts 29 Boeing 777 freighters and extensive belly capacity.
  • Etihad Airways: All flights to/from Abu Dhabi (AUH) suspended until at least 14:00 local time on 3/5.
    • Some evacuation and cargo flights resumed selectively.
  • Saudia (Saudi Arabian Airlines): Extended cancellations to/from Amman, Kuwait, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, Bahrain, Moscow, and Peshawar through 3/5.
    • Impacts passenger and cargo services.
  • Royal Jordanian:Operating limited flights but severely affected by Jordan's airspace restrictions.
    • Cancellations to multiple regional destinations including Baghdad, Dubai, and Doha, but some daytime operations resuming.
  • Lufthansa: Suspended to Dubai until 3/5; to Tel Aviv, Beirut, Amman, Erbil, Dammam, and Tehran until 3/8 - avoiding airspace over multiple countries including Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain.
  • Wizz Air: Suspended all flights to/from Israel, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Amman, and Saudi Arabia through 3/7.
  • Air India: Extended suspensions to/from UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Qatar, with further extensions probable.
  • United Airlines: Cancellations to Dubai through 3/5; to Tel Aviv through 3/6.
  • Delta Airlines:Suspended to Tel Aviv through 3/8.
  • Kuwait Airways: Halted all flights to Iran and suspended routes to multiple Gulf and regional destinations including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha.
    • Awaiting airspace clearance.
  • Oman Air: Cancelled flights to/from Dubai (DXB), Bahrain, Doha, Dammam, Kuwait, and Amman; suspended all services to Baghdad due to security concerns.
    • Limited operations resuming where possible.
  • Gulf Air: Temporarily suspended all operations, including to Iraq and Jordan.
    • Awaiting clearance from Bahrain authorities for safe resumption.
  • FedEx: Suspended services to/from Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia; delays anticipated for adjacent regions.
  • Other airlines with suspended or canceled routes to affected hubs (Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Jeddah, Tel Aviv, etc.): British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, Air France, KLM, IndiGo, Akasa Air, Turkish Airlines, Cathay Pacific, and American Airlines have suspended or canceled routes to affected hubs, with many extensions through mid-March.

Operational Impact

  • Grounded Operations: Suspensions affect both dedicated freighters and belly-hold capacity on passenger aircraft - essential for high-volume shippers.
  • Rerouting & Capacity Strain: Remaining flights are diverting via Turkey or over the Arabian Sea, adding 2-5 hours per leg.
    • The 30-50% increase in fuel burn not only elevates costs but also reduces payload capacity, limiting the volume of cargo that can be loaded per flight - even on rerouted services.
    • Passenger carriers, handling 40-60% of regional air freight, are experiencing ongoing cancellations and delays, further constraining overall lift.
  • Hub Disruptions: Major cargo gateways like Dubai (the world's busiest cargo airport), Doha (Hamad International), and Abu Dhabi (Zayed) remain idle, with ground handling operations halted.
    • Warehouses are increasingly backlogged, posing risks to perishables, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and ecommerce shipments.
    • Some airports (e.g., Dubai, Abu Dhabi) sustained direct strikes, complicating recovery.
    • Since 2/28, there have been over 12,300 cancellations across key airports.

Global Cargo Context

Middle East carriers, including Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad, Saudia, Royal Jordanian, Oman Air, Kuwait Airways, and Gulf Air, support approximately 25-30% of global air cargo volume annually, with Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi serving as primary transit hubs for nearly all Asia-Europe, Asia-Africa, and intra-Gulf flows. Prolonged airspace closures sever this critical lifeline, eliminating substantial belly and freighter capacity.

Specific Trade Lane Impacts

  • Asia-Europe: Capacity on Middle East-dependent routings is down 26%, while direct rerouted capacity has increased 13-14%.
  • Transit times are extended 1-3 hours, with rates surging due to scarcity and fuel costs.
  • Asia-Africa: Many flows rely on Gulf hubs for transit, resulting in 20-30% capacity reductions, routing challenges, and expected rate increases.
  • Backlogs are building for perishables and high value goods.
  • Intra-Middle East: Operations remain completely halted in affected areas, with no viable short term alternatives - driving indefinite delays and limited shifts to ground transport where conditions allow.
  • Asia-Americas: While these routes typically bypass the Middle East, the 18% global capacity drop is tightening trans Pacific space and pushing rates up 20-50%.
  • Rerouted Asia-Europe cargo is spilling into Pacific capacity, creating additional competition and potential 1-3 day delays.
  • Europe-Americas: Indirect pressure from global rerouting is driving 20-50% rate increases, especially as Europe handles diverted Asia bound freight that strains westbound and trans Atlantic lanes.
  • Impacts to U.S. Capacity and Rates: Although direct U.S.-Middle East volumes are limited, the global capacity crunch is creating volatility on U.S. inbound lanes from Asia and Europe.
  • Spot rates may rise 20-50% due to competition for space, especially for Asia-U.S. lanes if shippers pivot from disrupted ocean routes via the Strait of Hormuz.
  • As a result, trans Pacific freighters could face 1-3-day delays.

Cargo Prioritization During Crises

During severe capacity constraints, carriers prioritize shipments based on urgency, value, and contractual agreements. Typically, airlines allocate space to the following:

  • Humanitarian aid
  • Military cargo
    Perishables (e.g., fresh produce) and pharmaceuticals (time- and temperature-sensitive)
  • High-value goods, express bookings, and premium services (e.g., priority air or charter)
  • Contracted premium or long-term customers with long-term contract holders and premium shippers rebooked faster during disruptions.

General cargo often faces extended delays or space denials. Shippers with express, premium, or priority service agreements should leverage them now to secure capacity.

SEKO'S GUIDANCE

With major Middle Eastern airlines offline for multiple days, key lanes are experiencing 20-30% capacity reductions.

SEKO recommends importers and shippers:

  • Plan for extended delays,including multi-day impacts on time-sensitive freight and mounting congestion at alternative hubs.
  • Expect elevated spot rates, now increasing 50-100%+on rerouted flights due to fuel costs and scarcity, with further increases expected as backlogs accumulate.
  • Evaluate alternative routings and modes, including Istanbul, Frankfurt, and ocean freight solutions where possible.
  • Hold or reroute Gulf-bound or urgent cargo,using unaffected corridors when possible.
  • Secure capacity early and engage with SEKO operationsfor updated contingency quotes or rebooking options.

The situation remains highly dynamic, and SEKO will continue issuing updates as developments occur.

If you have questions, please reach out to your SEKO representative, or email us at [email protected].

SEKO Worldwide LLC published this content on March 05, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on March 05, 2026 at 17:41 UTC. If you believe the information included in the content is inaccurate or outdated and requires editing or removal, please contact us at [email protected]