EIOPA’s risk dashboard for occupational pension funds highlights persistent market risks amid geopolitically complex environment

The European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) released today its July 2026 Risk Dashboard for institutions for occupational retirement provision (IORPs), highlighting that persistent geopolitical uncertainty and evolving global market conditions continue to shape the risk landscape for the European occupational pensions sector, with market risks remaining a key concern.

• The macroeconomic environment is characterized by higher inflation expectations and a weaker GDP outlook. In early July, heightened geopolitical risks weighed on confidence and economic activity, while also putting upward pressure on inflation through higher energy and transport costs.
• Financial markets have showed resilience despite the complex geopolitical environment, with sovereign and corporate bond spreads contained, although they slightly widened in mid-July. Debt financing costs and private credit quality should be closely monitored, as higher borrowing costs could increase default risk for highly leveraged entities, while publicly observed credit spreads may not fully capture emerging risks in private credit markets.
• Despite the easing of equity and bond market volatility at end-June, market and asset return risks remain elevated. Geopolitical developments in mid-July contributed to renewed volatility, particularly in commodity markets. Looking ahead, the 12-month risk outlook is worsening amid concerns over a potential broader market correction, elevated valuations and a possible reassessment of risk premia linked to renewed geopolitical tensions.
• Digitalisation and cyber risks show a worsening outlook, with supervisors assessing that the materiality of these risks for IORPs is rising, reflecting both persistent geopolitical uncertainty and growing systemic cyber risks associated with frontier AI models.
• Despite adverse macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, Europe's IORP sector remains resilient, supported by robust financial position for Defined Benefit (DB) schemes, and positive portfolio performance.

View the Dashboard

Background

This IORP Risk Dashboard, based on the latest IORP reporting data with reference up to the first quarter of 2026, summarises the main risks and vulnerabilities in the IORP sector of the European Economic Area (EEA) for the different schemes, i.e. defined contributions (DC) and defined benefits (DB), through a set of risk indicators. The data is based on quarterly Q1 2026 and annual 2025 regulatory reporting collected from 625 IORPs. The IORP reporting information is complemented with market data with a cut-off date of end-June 2026.