Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
03/03/2026 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 03/03/2026 09:21
The Effects of the War on Ukraine on Global Corporate Investment
March 2026
The Effects of the War on Ukraine on Global Corporate Investment
Dario Caldara, Mike McHenry, Matteo Iacoviello, and Immo Schott
Abstract:
We study the investment effects of the Russia-Ukraine war using a novel, text-based measure of firm-level exposure derived from earnings call transcripts. Combining this measure with financial statement data for over 6,500 firms across 50 countries, we show that exposure to the conflict led to sizable and persistent declines in corporate investment. Firms that discussed the war in early 2022 invested significantly less than otherwise similar firms. The results hold across multiple empirical strategies and highlight the role of geopolitical risk in shaping firm behavior during global crises.
Keywords: Earnings call text, Geopolitical Risk, Investment, Russia-Ukraine war
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2026.1432
PDF: Full Paper
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