UCSD - University of California - San Diego
11/03/2025 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 11/03/2025 15:16
Can China Lead on Climate? UC San Diego Professor Explains
Story by:
- Christine Clark- [email protected]
- Ioana Patringenaru- [email protected]
Published Date
November 03, 2025Article Content
China has just unveiled a new set of climate targets that will shape the pace of global decarbonization for years to come. As the United States steps back from climate leadership, the world's attention has turned to China-the largest emitter of greenhouse gases and a growing powerhouse in clean energy technology. To help make sense of what's at stake, UC San Diego's Michael Davidson, an associate professor at the School of Global Policy and Strategy and the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at the Jacobs School of Engineering, explains what these new goals mean for China, the global climate, and the path forward.
Michael Davidson, an associate professor at the School of Global Policy and Strategy and the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at the Jacobs School of Engineering.
Why is it important to understand China's climate targets?
China now accounts for nearly a third of global carbon emissions, so the shape and credibility of its climate targets determine the world's overall decarbonization pace. As the United States recently left the Paris Agreement, there is even more anxiety regarding leadership on climate change and how to maintain momentum toward global greenhouse gas (GHG) goals. China's trajectory, with a rapidly growing economy but also a world-leading clean tech sector, could also provide a model for how other emerging economies can tackle climate change without sacrificing development.
Tell us briefly about China's newly announced climate targets.
All countries must submit their newest nationally determined contributions (NDCs) at this year's United Nations climate conference, which will be for the period ending in 2035. For the first time, China pledged an absoluteemissions reduction-cutting economy-wide greenhouse gases about 7-10 percent below their peak by 2035-and has included all GHGs, not just CO2. It also aims to produce 30 percent of non-fossil energy in total primary consumption, and expand wind and solar capacity to roughly 3,600 GW, in addition broadening coverage of its national carbon market. There are also other targets related to forestry, electric vehicles and climate adaptation.
You've described China's emissions targets as underwhelming. Why do you think this is?
Many analysts view them as conservative relative to what is needed for a 2ºC or 1.5ºC global greenhouse temperature rise target. Peer-reviewed modeling for 2ºC scenarios show China's economy-wide emissions must reduce in the range 10-15%, though there is some uncertainty due to the lack of a specified peaking level (and whether China may peak before 2030, its current peaking target). Very recent market trends have generated some analyses that call for 20% or greater emissions from the peak. Therefore, the 7-10% target comes in below that. For the much more difficult 1.5ºC scenario, emissions cuts may need to be in the 20-30% range. This target was largely expected as domestically, officials were emphasizing feasibility and energy security. Domestic experts are framing this as an achievable floor rather than ceiling, signaling room for over-delivery. With the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, there is less geopolitical pressure for China to increase its pledge.
How important are solar and wind power to reach these targets?
Wind and solar are essential, because they are the most scalable clean energy technologies to meet near-term emissions goals. Wind and solar are expanding rapidly in China, with around 200 GW per year installations over the last five years, and greater than 300 GW per year in the last two. Wind and solar must continue to grow substantially to maintain climate progress. For climate-aligned scenarios, the power sector emissions must decline in the region of 40%, with the exact number depending on what happens in the rest of the economy. Our modeling suggests that to achieve this, wind and solar must grow from around 18% of power generation today to around 40% by 2030 and 50% by 2035. By that time, non-fossil generation (which also includes hydropower, nuclear and biomass) should be 70-80% of total power generation, up from around 40% today. This means annual installations of 150-220 GW of new wind and solar, reaching 3000-3800 GW, plus major upgrades to grid integration, storage, and inter-provincial trading. China's new wind and solar target lands in the upper range of those scenarios.
As the United States recently left the Paris Agreement, there is even more anxiety regarding leadership on climate change and how to maintain momentum toward global greenhouse gas (GHG) goals. Michael Davidson, associate professor at the School of Global Policy and Strategy and the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at the Jacobs School of Engineering
Why do you think China continues to invest in coal?
Coal's resurgence is driven by energy security concerns. After the 2021 power shortages, the center reiterated the importance of keeping the lights on, and provinces prioritized reliability and local energy security, approving nearly 100 GW of new coal plants in 2024 alone. Many of these units are designed as reserve or balancing capacity rather than baseload supply, reflecting some conservativeness on the part of planners for alternative sources to provide reliable power. Our research has shown that renewables in China have not been major causes of power unreliability, but rather institutional issues related to markets and inflexible power system operations play bigger roles. In eastern coastal provinces, demand response will be essential to manage peak demand. An important challenge for China is how to compensate these coal plants to sit mostly idle and let more clean and low-cost renewable energy onto the grid. This creates an obvious contradiction in China's climate efforts that must be scrutinized and monitored.
China is set to release a new version of its five-year plan. How do you expect these new climate targets will impact that document?
China uses its five-year planning documents to guide government policies at the central and local levels and plays an important role in energy planning. The next plan which will run from 2026-2030 will need to create a pathway to ensuring 2030 peaking and to achieve these 2035 goals. This involves translating national goals into sectoral and provincial targets-including renewable energy planning, power market design, and expanding the emissions trading scheme. The new five-year plan must contain strong language on storage, grid investment, and markets, in addition to accelerating efforts in other sectors, like industry. We will also expect the plan to include more ambitious and wide-reaching efforts from state-owned enterprises which are the main implementers of energy policy. These firms dominate new energy installations, in part because they are responding to both political and economic incentives. China just changed its renewable energy compensation schemes, which is causing a slowdown in growth in the latter half of 2025.
Learn more about research and education at UC San Diego in: Climate Change
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