The El Niño phenomenon in the Americas will have significant health repercussions

Washington, D.C., July 7, 2026 (PAHO) - The new Public Health Situation Analysis in the face of the El Niño climate event (2026-2027) warns that climate disruptions, ranging from extreme droughts to torrential rains, act as powerful environmental drivers capable of triggering cascading epidemiological crises, destabilizing emergency healthcare services, and exacerbating pre-existing social inequalities. Countries are urged to reconfigure their contingency plans to prioritize mitigating the impacts on human health as the central focus of their institutional response.

The original document comprehensively analyzes the Region of the Americas, focusing specifically on subregions and countries considered priority areas due to the projected impacts of this large-scale weather event. With regard to human health, it specifically analyzes and identifies how extreme weather events (droughts, floods, heat waves) directly harm people's physical and mental well-being.

First, communicable (infectious) diseases, identified as having "very high" risks, are addressed, including cholera and leptospirosis, as well as those caused by vectors such as malaria, dengue, Zika, and chikungunya . Secondly, regarding non-communicable diseases, the impacts of heat stress-considered the leading cause of climate-related deaths-and the increase in respiratory illnesses due to wildfire smoke are being studied. Finally, in the area of mental health, an increase in anxiety, grief, and post-traumatic stress disorder resulting from the loss of livelihoods and displacement is noted.

From an infrastructure and services perspective, the vulnerability of healthcare facilities to structural damage is assessed. Specifically, 756 emergency hospitals exposed to the risk of coastal flooding due to rising sea levels and disruptions to medical supply chains, which are vital for patients with chronic illnesses, are analyzed.

Meanwhile, regarding the determinants of health (health in vulnerable groups), the document analyzes the situation differently for specific populations. For maternal and neonatal health, it focuses on the risks to pregnant women and newborns due to the lack of safe water and emergency obstetric services.

Malnutrition is directly linked to food insecurity caused by crop losses, with children under five being the most affected. Gender-based violence is also identified as a public health risk that increases considerably in overcrowded shelters and disaster-related stress.

The Public Health Situation Analysis in the face of the El Niño climate event (2026-2027) also recommends that health authorities and governments implement various response and mitigation measures to mitigate the aforementioned impacts. These include strengthening surveillance to prioritize the early detection of climate-sensitive diseases and nutritional monitoring in children under five and pregnant women, as well as promoting the integration of meteorological models with public health databases to identify vector-borne disease outbreaks in advance. The analysis also emphasizes the need to guarantee access to safe water to prevent outbreaks of cholera and leptospirosis, especially in flood-prone areas or those experiencing extreme drought.

To safeguard continuity of care, it is proposed to implement alternative mechanisms, such as telehealth and mobile pharmacies, ensuring that people with chronic illnesses do not interrupt their treatments. Similarly, to protect against violence, it is urged that protocols be established in safe spaces to prevent gender-based violence. Regarding infrastructure, it is recommended to monitor its safety by reviewing the non-structural components of health facilities to ensure they remain operational during the climate emergency.

Finally, the importance of risk communication is highlighted through the deployment of Risk Communication and Community Participation campaigns in native languages, focused on the intradomiciliary management of safe water and the early detection of clinical warning signs.

"The magnitude of El Niño's impact depends not only on the intensity of the phenomenon, but also on our capacity for preparedness and coordinated response," state the regional response guidelines. It is essential that preparedness measures be clearly communicated to communities to encourage adaptive behaviors.